The Russian military's failures in Ukraine is pitting the Kremlin against its most ardent war supporters, according to a new report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his "special military operation" in Ukraine last February, aiming for a quick victory over his Eastern European neighbor, which at the time was believed to have a smaller, weaker military. However, after more than a year of combat, Russia continues to struggle to make progress in its stalled invasion as analysts point to a number of issues within its own military and as the West provides Ukraine with more powerful weapons, bolstering the war-torn country's defense efforts.
A new ISW report released on Monday details how these failures are creating a divide between the Kremlin and the community of Russian military bloggers, known colloquially as milbloggers. Many milbloggers have supported the goals of the invasion while also voicing concerns about leadership and strategy they say have prevented Russian gains.
Tensions between the milblogger community and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continued this week after some bloggers rejected the ministry's framing of a claimed victory over Ukrainian forces near the Antonivsky Bridge in Kherson, a key city in Eastern Ukraine, according to the ISW.
"Some Russian milbloggers, however, contrary to the MoD's reports, noted that fighting is still ongoing and that Ukrainian forces maintained some positions near Antonivsky Bridge as of July 2," the ISW reported. "A prominent Russian milblogger amplified a post on July 1 from an unspecified Telegram channel, which criticized several prominent Kremlin and Wagner-affiliated Telegram channels for contradicting the Russian MoD's official narrative."
That post accused bloggers of promoting false information by supporting the MoD's claim and helping Ukraine's "psychological operations."
But more critical voices in turn accused the Russian General Staff of launching an attack on the milbogger community, claiming that the ministry tried to open a criminal case against them last year because their reporting "undermines" Russian attempts to "exaggerate" their military successes, the ISW reported.
Putin Faces Choice of 'Censoring' Milbloggers After Wagner Mutiny, ISW Says
Meanwhile, Putin is facing a question of whether or not he should censor Russian milbloggers who promoted efforts to have Wagner Group founder and leader Yevgeny Prigozhin replace defense ministry leadership with Wagner officials, the ISW wrote.
Late last month, Prigozhin launched an attempted rebellion against Russian leadership, but ultimately failed to replace current military leaders. A peace deal brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a top Putin ally, ended the mutiny while giving the Wagner Group leader safety in Belarus.
But the rebellion could change the relations between Putin and milbloggers, according to the ISW.
"Putin will need to restrict Russian milbloggers from criticizing the Russian MoD if he seeks to reestablish and reinforce the MoD's credibility, but the MoD's failures, struggles, and apparent pervasive dishonesty may make that task infeasible," the ISW wrote. "Putin may thus instead decide to continue appeasing the milblogger community and scapegoating the Russian MoD for military failures in Ukraine, a far easier undertaking."
Newsweek reached out to the Russian Ministry of Defense for comment via email.
