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How I'm Implementing My Dividend Growth Strategy Today

Jun. 29, 2023 11:52 PM ETLVMUY, HESAY, VTI, AAPL12 Comments
Investment Pancake profile picture
Investment Pancake
9.1K Followers

Summary

  • How to effectively implement a dividend growth strategy and why.
  • What stocks I am adding to my portfolio this month.
  • A thought experiment that calls into question whether it ever makes sense for a long-term, passive investor to own any dividend growth ETFs.

Male chimpanzee in business clothes

lisegagne/E+ via Getty Images

An inflammatory concept!

Who among us has ever caught herself praying for the stock market not to crash before her monthly bills get paid? If you depend on the stock market to cooperate with your hopes, ambitions

portfolio

Author's portfolio (Author's personal spreadsheet)

Portfolio performance

Portfolio performance against VTI (Google Finance)

This article was written by

Investment Pancake profile picture
9.1K Followers
Individual value investor with strong penchant for dividend growth.  A former tax and estates attorney who retired in his early 40s and expatriated to Lisbon, Portugal with his family. Now writes about tax law, portfolio strategy and life in sunny Portugal and tutors students in personal financial planning.Association with SA author Evelyn TriasContributor, CNBCProducer of "The Quarterly Compounder" channel on YouTube.com.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of TROW, PFE either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

I am not an investment advisor and nothing contained in this article is investment advice. I cannot guarantee the accuracy of any calculation or chart referenced in this article. This article is for entertainment or educational purposes only.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (12)

F
These funds like to buy high and sell low when they rebalance. But they need to do something to justify the fees :-)
Investment Pancake profile picture
@Fero. Exactly! No professional manager can afford to do what it takes to be a truly passive long-term investor... which is nothing. That is exactly why I believe, genuinely, that any retail investor on Earth can easily outperform any professional investor by a wide margin as long as you do one thing: put down the keyboard and go do something different for the next fifty years.
thirdcamper profile picture
Brilliant as ever, and I share the same basic outlook, with two provisos.

First, I've been studying S&P credit ratings and the A-band almost never goes to midcap companies. Therefore sticking only to A companies means a bias toward large cap. Over a long stretch of time, that can reduce returns. I therefore have decided to keep a bias toward the A-range but open up to some BBB, BBB+ companies. This year AVGO (BBB- because it is constantly making acquisitions to turn itself into a chip and software powerhouse) is one of my better performers, with a good dividend at the rate I bought it at. Anyway, once you get to confident income level, it might be worth making an exception or two.

Second, I love the PFE choice right now, but I've taken a pass myself on TROW. The reason being, I figure most people are catching on to what you've caught onto, the importance of reducing fees. They do it, though, by buying index funds, rather than being direct shareholders. Nevertheless, there's a constant slow erosion of demand for what TROW markets - fee-generating funds - and those are the basis of its dividend. (Don't get me wrong, I have an asset manager or two for the yield too, I've just decided to stop adding to them.)

This second point is meant not to be so much about TROW but about something bigger, which is that the past, history, though important and useful, is not what one can invest in - instead, we have to invest in the future. And for that reason a company that has not necessarily a very long dividend history may turn out to be a better future dividend compounder than one that has a a long dividend history but is in a line of business that may be wobbling. Therefore I do pay attention to past data and have my own investing criteria, but I am also always thinking about the future. That's why I'd rather own ALB, a lithium producer, than TROW, even if the S&P rating is lower and even if the yield is lower. The EV revolution is in motion and one can see it will mean substantial future growth prospects.

Just my thoughts. I do share your desire for a steady and increasing dividend income stream without tapping the principal.
thirdcamper profile picture
And an addendum: Enron was A-rated. Silicon Valley Bank was. So that's the flipside, plenty of investment-grade BBB+ companies like PH have been brilliant dividend growth companies, while A companies failed. So we still have to do our own evaluation. Ah, if investing were easy.
E. Dantes profile picture
There are many paths that lead to Rome. I enjoy your articles and like to look at your portfolio percentages to see where our similarities and differences are. While we both have many of the same companies, not all by any stretch, it is the ideology behind our portfolios that I find interesting. You have a select few large holdings in tech with Apple and your luxury brand exposure has grown substantially. I am not sure if you considered those brands your projects, but I almost always have about 80% of my portfolio in positions that will not be touched and that I consider top shelf positions (MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, AVGO, LMT, AMZN, PM, BTI, PFE, +many more, etc). The other 20% or so are my ideas or themes that I have high conviction in after significant research or deep thought. Examples of those are sections that I have built around materials or resources that are in my opinion 100% necessary for the planet to move forward with any of the infrastructure needed for grid hardening, EV requirements, energy optimization, etc. I am not swinging for the stars, but I do believe we are in a truly transformational time in history and AI will touch our lives in almost every single way. The idea of owning a phone that had other tools on it was laughed at repeatedly and I believe AI is going to dwarf that in the next 5-10 years. Discussion with Eric Schmidt was telling.
Investment Pancake profile picture
@E. Dantes I too had an interesting discussion about AI... with an AI. I asked Google's chatbot Bard if I should buy stock in Alphabet, and got back a very canned response about talking to an investment advisor, understanding risk, etc. So I asked a follow up question: would Bard like to buy stock of Alphabet. Bard's response was that it has no risk tolerance and therefore couldn't make an investment choice for itself (interesting, right?) and also would not be able to own stock because it is a computer and not a person (also interesting). So I asked "in a hypothetical future where computers can own property, would you invest in Apple stock?" Bard said yes, and then spelled out what it's investment expectations would be - including an income stream to pay for upgrades, repairs and to support its human engineers. Now things started to get interesting. I asked Bard what legal framework under New York law would enable it to own shares of Alphabet. You see, I was thinking that maybe I was actually chatting with a human engineer posing as Bard, and not chatting with an actual AI. As an attorney, I am fairly confident that a human computer engineer wouldn't know how to answer that question. Bard came back with an answer. Under New York law, it is possible to establish a trust for the benefit of a pet, and since pets are not people, the trust could be established for the benefit of a computer which, like a pet, is also not a person.

No computer engineer would come up with that response. This response was AI generated, I am fairly confident. It was creative and maybe right, maybe wrong, but if a human associate gave me this answer I'd give them high marks at their annual review. It costs roughly $300k per year for a law firm to hire a full time associate. Bard is free. Do the math. Then multiply that result by every services based firm around the planet.

Yeah. AI is going to have an economic impact. Some jobs will go, new jobs will be created, the cost for things like hiring a skilled attorney will drop from hundreds of thousands of dollars to hundreds of dollars (or less), which will unlock human potential and creativity like never before. Asking which firms will capitalize disproportionately is sort of like asking which firms benefit the most from the creation of the wheel or the discovery of electricity. They all benefit. That sort of transformative benefit is, in my view, the very definition of what Warren Buffett describes as the "tailwind" that comes from investing in American business. Going forward, I believe that AI will increase that tailwind with hurricane force, meaning the best days for investors are yet to come and already here.

For fun, I asked Bard if owning stock in Alphabet through a New York pet trust would effectively mean Bard owns itself, doesn't that make Bard a person, legally? If owning the rights to your own self-determination doesn't make you a person, legally speaking, what does?

I won't share Bard's response to that. Instead, I will let you find out for yourself. Why not go onto Bard and try a series of similar prompts until you get to the answer to this last metaphysical question? I don't know whether you'll be impressed, scared, in awe, but I do know one thing. The responses will confirm your notion that AI is going to bring radical change to our civilization - maybe on par with the creation of the internet, but maybe even more so. I just kept reminding myself "I cannot believe that I am discussing metaphysics... with a machine." What does that say about the development of life on Earth? Chapter One: the first 4.5 billion years are about the rise of organic lifeforms. Chapter Two: the rise of silicon-based lifeforms.
thirdcamper profile picture
@Investment Pancake Hey, c'mon, you really should just give us that last answer....

Yes, once the Dead Sea Scrolls, now ChatGPT.
Investment Pancake profile picture
@thirdcamper Where is the fun in that!?! I mean, how many generations of humans have lived to see an actual pivotal moment in history? No fun simply being told about it when you can go out, literally see for yourself.
Pineapple_Paul profile picture
So you built your own ETF that you have to manage how often?
Investment Pancake profile picture
@Pineapple_Paul That I "have to" manage is one question, that I chose to manage is a second question. I could very easily click the "auto reinvest" button on some accounts, collect and spend the dividends I need on other accounts, and as far as management goes, literally never lift a finger again. Instead, I love to read about companies, markets, and hand pick where to reinvest dividends. I estimate that the financial benefits of the extra time I spend are equal to or somewhat less than zero, but I enjoy it so I do it.
5ofDiamonds profile picture
Any Dividends based investment strategy has its seeds in - how one wants to own a large apartment complex and collect rents - but cannot.

This "psychology" of getting dividends as an income stream has fooled many.

Once I asked my friend - I plan to buy this apartment complex. It costs $7M. If you can be a partner for $1M, I can buy it. You will get 11% returns on your investment.

What do you think is the catch here?

Same applies for dividends driven investors, be in CEFs, mREITs, or useless ETFs like $BST or $QYLD.

The whole concept is misleading.

My 2c.
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