Russian General Is Kremlin's 'Prime Candidate for a Scapegoat': ISW

A Russian general who may have had prior knowledge of the Wagner Group rebellion has reportedly been arrested by Kremlin law enforcement, according to Russian media reports.

The Moscow Times, an independent news site, cited two sources close to the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) who confirmed that senior General Sergei Surovikin, who previously led Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, had been arrested. The report comes the same day that U.S. officials briefed on American intelligence told The New York Times that Surovikin had known about Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin's plan to lead an armed challenge against the Russian military prior to the 24-hour mutiny on Saturday.

According to The New York Times, it is unclear if Surovikin helped plan Prigozhin's rebellion or when he learned of the uprising. The Moscow Times noted that rumors first started swirling of the general's arrest on Sunday after it was reported by Russian military blogger Vladimir Romanov.

Russian General Is Kremlin's 'Prime Scapegoat'
Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, presents an award to Russian General Sergei Surovikin at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on December 28, 2017. Surovikin has reportedly been arrested in connection to the Wagner Group's rebellion. Alexey Druzhinin/SPUTNIK/AFP/Getty

Surovikin's reported detainment is likely a sign of the Kremlin's attempt to "purge" leaders who may be disloyal to the Russian MoD as Russian President Vladimir Putin attempts to recover from Prigozhin's challenge, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

"If Russian authorities did arrest Surovikin then the Kremlin will likely use Surovikin and his affiliates as scapegoats to publicly explain why the Russian military and Russian internal security apparatuses responded poorly to the rebellion and to justify a potential overhaul of the Russian military leadership," the ISW wrote in its daily assessment of the Russia-Ukraine war on Wednesday.

The think tank, based in Washington, D.C., said that it had previously reported on Surovikin's alleged support for Wagner while tensions grew between Priogzhin and the Russian military, and wrote on Wednesday that "Surovikin is a prime candidate for a scapegoat regardless of the actual level of support he gave to the rebellion."

Reports of Surovikin's arrest have been denied by Russian Colonel General Andrei Yudin, according to the news agency Ura.ru, and The New York Times report invoked a "curt" response from Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov, who said that Russia's citizens and leadership were unified around Putin.

"There will be a lot of various speculations, gossip and so on around these events—I think this is one of such examples," Peskov said while addressing the Times report. "The army, the people, everyone was next to the president."

Surovikin's involvement in Prigozhin's rebellion could mean that the infighting among Kremlin leadership is far from finished, as Putin faces a long-touted counteroffensive from Ukrainian forces to retake Russian-occupied territory. Experts have assessed that the Wagner rebellion is likely a threat to Putin's ability to hold onto control of his nation, and Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko warned on Tuesday that the "worse" likely awaits Russia following the brief mutiny.

Russian law enforcement has dropped its criminal investigation of Prigozhin, and the Wagner chief has since taken exile in Belarus as part of negotiations to end the conflict on Saturday.

Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Foreign Ministry via email for comment.

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