Did Wagner rebellion reveal chinks in Vladimir Putin’s grip on Russia?
3 min read 26 Jun 2023, 02:02 PM ISTThe Wagner Group has returned to its bases in Ukraine after a deal was brokered between their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and the Russian government. Earlier, the group had declared rebellion and captured the Army headquarters in Rostov-on-Don
PremiumThe Wagner Group is returning to its bases in Ukraine after its mercenaries reached an agreement with the Russian government. Their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has accepted exile in Belarus. The Wagner mercenaries declared rebellion and successfully captured the Army headquarters in Rostov-on-Don before advancing towards Moscow to destabilize the military and overthrow the Russian government.
The only opposition they faced came from some civilians, but many others cheered them on, viewing Prigozhin as a challenger of a "corrupt" government in his "march of justice." This rebellion marked the first time someone had successfully moved through cities and shot down Russian aircraft.
Click here for live updates on Russia's situation post Wagner army mutiny
As the world closely monitored the uprising in Russia, advisories were issued for people to stay home, barricades were erected, and roads were dug up to impede the progress of the mercenaries, causing internal chaos in the country.
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu remained silent, generating uncertainty among the Russians amidst a counteroffensive from Ukraine. In his address to the nation, President Vladimir Putin adopted a somber tone as he directly accused Yevgeny Prigozhin of betrayal.
However, the Wagner Group suddenly retreated from Russian territory hours later, citing the desire to avoid a bloodbath. The manner in which the deal was brokered remains unknown, but the Wagner group returned to their bases, and Yevgeny Prigozhin was pardoned by the Russian leadership. According to the Kremlin, he has agreed to go into exile in Belarus, and the charges against him have been dropped.
Yevgeny Prigozhin has not made any public statements since Sunday when he announced the return of his mercenaries to their bases, and his whereabouts are currently unknown. Prigozhin was last seen leaving Rostov-on-Don in an SUV on Saturday, cheered on by some locals.
Although it may be seen as a victory for Vladimir Putin, it appears to be a less favorable outcome for Yevgeny Prigozhin. If the reports are accurate, the Wagner Group will now enter into a contract with the Russian defense ministry, fulfilling one of the reasons behind the rebellion, which aligns with the desires of the Russian leadership.
With Yevgeny Prigozhin in exile and the Wagner Group formalizing a contractual agreement with the Russian government, this marks a definitive conclusion for the mercenaries.
Despite the Wagner uprising lasting only a little over 36 hours, Vladimir Putin, who has consistently portrayed himself as a strongman in complete control of the nation during his over 20-year rule, never appeared weak or vulnerable during the rebellion.
The sparing of Yevgeny Prigozhin contrasts with Vladimir Putin's systematic approach to handling dissent, opposition, and rebellion.
So, does this signify the end of unity in Vladimir Putin's Russia? The West and some political analysts believe so.
WHAT IS THE GLOBAL RESPONSE?
The United States believes that the Russian rebellion may not be over yet, and the "final act" has yet to unfold. "I think we've seen more cracks emerge in the Russian façade," said US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.
French President Emmanuel Macron remarked that the Wagner Group's advance on Moscow "reveals the divisions that exist within the Russian camp and the vulnerability of both its military and auxiliary forces."
The US-based Institute for the Study of War warned that "the Kremlin now faces a deeply unstable equilibrium. The deal is a short-term fix, not a long-term solution." This is because the rebellion was not an impulsive decision but rather a result of intelligence suggesting that Prigozhin had been amassing forces near the Russian border for some time.
Mykhailo Podolyak, senior aide to Zelensky, tweeted that "Prigozhin humiliated Putin/the state and showed that there is no longer a monopoly on violence."
"Putin underestimated Prigozhin, just as he underestimated Zelensky before. He could have stopped this with a phone call to Prigozhin, but he did not," independent political analyst Konstantin Kalachev told AFP.
