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Emmys: Directing (Series)- ‘Succession’ Trio Out Front While ‘Stranger Things’ Finale Simmers; Paris Barclay Poised to Make History for Black Directors

Seven drama directors will be nominated based on submissions, but comedy and limited/tv movie will be reduced to six

Dahmer - Succession - Ted Lasso - A Small Light

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series

Stefano Delia/HBO

Weekly Commentary (Updated: June 23, 2023): Directing (drama) has 214 submissions which will produce seven nominees.

The pivotal “Connor’s Wedding” episode from HBO’s “Succession” is sure to lead the way for helmer Mark Mylod, who lost out last year to “Squid Game.” His episode was submitted along with Andrij Parekh (“America Decides”) and Lorene Scafaria (“Living+”).

Toward the beginning of this year’s eligibility period (which started June 1, 2022), Netflix dropped the Vol. 2 installments of “Stranger Things.” Under new rules, these are considered “orphan” episodes in the eyes of awards eligibility. This prevents the show from submitting for the drama series category (which requires a minimum of six) or any main series acting categories. Only Dacre Montgomery was eligible to submit for guest drama actor.

Netflix and the creatives have focused on the two-hour and 19-minute finale, “The Piggyback,” submitting it to the Emmy Creative Arts races it was eligible for, along with the two main categories for directing and writing. It would break through despite not being eligible for drama series.

“The White Lotus,” which made its move from limited to drama this year, has put Mike White’s “Arrivederci” up for both writing and directing races.

HBO’s “House of the Dragon submitted four episodes including Miguel Sapochnik’s series premiere titled “The Heirs of the Dragon.”

HBO’s “The Last of Us” submitted only one episode for writing and directing, the emotional “Long, Long Time” by scribe Craig Mazin and helmer Peter Hoar.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.

Nomination voting is now open to the 20,000+ members of the Television Academy. The first round of voting ends on June 26 at 10 p.m. PT. The official nominees will be announced on Tuesday, July 12. The 75th Primetime Emmy Awards, produced by Jesse Collins Entertainment, are (tentatively scheduled pending the outcome of the WGA strike) on Monday, Sept. 18 at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on Fox. The two-night Creative Arts Emmys are scheduled for Sept. 9 and Sept. 10.

2022 category winner: “Squid Game” (Netflix) — Hwang Dong-hyuk, “Red Light, Green Light”

And the Predicted Nominees Are:

  1. “Succession” (HBO) — Mark Mylod, “Connor’s Wedding”
  2. “The Last of Us” (HBO) — Peter Hoar, “Long, Long Time”
  3. “Succession” (HBO) — Andrij Parekh, “America Decides”
  4. “Succession” (HBO) — Lorene Scafaria, “Living+”
  5. “The White Lotus” (HBO) — Mike White, “Arrivederci”
  6. “Better Call Saul” (AMC) — Peter Gould, “Saul Gone”
  7. “Stranger Things” (Netflix) — The Duffer Brothers, “Chapter Nine: The Piggyback”

Next in Line

  1. “House of the Dragon” (HBO) — Miguel Sapochnik, “The Heirs of the Dragon”
  2. “The Old Man” (FX) — Jon Watts, “I”
  3. “The Crown” (Netflix) — Christian Schwochow, “Ipatiev House”

Other Top-Tier Possibilities

  1. “Andor” (Disney+) — Benjamin Caron, “Rix Road”
  2. “Yellowjackets” (Showtime) — Liz Garbus, “Qui”
  3. “Yellowjackets” (Showtime) — Karyn Kusama, “Storytelling”
  4. “House of the Dragon” (HBO) — Greg Yaitanes, “The Black Queen”
  5. “The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power” (Prime Video) — J.A. Bayona, “A Shadow of the Past”
  6. “1923” (Paramount+) — Ben Richardson, “1923”
  7. “Yellowstone” (Paramount Network) — Christina Alexandra Voros, “A Knife and a Coin”
  8. “Queen Sugar” (OWN) — Ava DuVernay, “For They Existed”
  9. “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu) — Elisabeth Moss, “Safe”
  10. “The Mandalorian” (Disney+) — Lee Isaac Chung, “Chapter 19: The Convert”

2022 winner: Hwang Dong-hyuk, “Squid Game” (Netflix) — “Red Light, Green Light”

2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series

Apple TV+

Weekly Commentary (Updated June 23, 2023): There are 146 submissions for directing (comedy) which makes this race even tighter since that will yield 6 nominees, unlike directing (drama) which will have seven.

Apple’s third season of “Ted Lasso” put up five directors for Emmy consideration — MJ Delaney (“I Don’t Want to Go to Chelsea”), Destiny Ekaragha (“4-5-1”), Erica Dunton (“La Locker Room Aux Folles”), Matt Lipsey (“Sunflowers”) and Declan Lowney (“So Long, Farewell”).

Netflix’s “Wednesday” has injected Tim Burton’s premiere episode “Wednesday’s Child is Full of Woe” for directing, which should be easy for him to nab.

Hulu’s sophomore season of “Only Murders in the Building” has four directors in the running — John Hoffman (“Persons of Interest”), Charien Dabis (“The Tell”), Chris Teague (“Flipping the Pieces”) and Jamie Babbit (“I