Why Cincinnati Reds might glimpse their best future in Atlanta Braves model this weekend

Chicago Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson got an up-close look that was maybe a little more up-close and personal than he would have preferred during the Cincinnati Reds’ sweep of the Cubs a few weeks ago at Wrigley Field.

And what he saw looked at least a little familiar.

“They definitely have some homegrown guys,” he said. “It’s hard for me to speak on all the similarities. But I think everyone’s chasing the homegrown-core-built component. Everyone’s chasing after that because it’s proven to be successful in all sports.”

Which is to say, everyone's chasing the Atlanta Braves. The 2021 World Series champs. The team with the best record in the National League. The team with almost every key, young, talented core player signed to a long-term extension.

Swanson has as much experience with that as almost any player, having been acquired by the Braves as a minor leaguer and becoming a key part of their recent homegrown-based rebuild that produced playoff appearances the last five years.

Ultimately, the Braves made an offer that was too little and probably a year too late to extend Swanson, who eventually signed a $177-million free-agent deal with the Cubs.

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But the Braves team that opens a three-game series Friday at Great American Ball Park against the hottest team in baseball leads the National League East again, with five young homegrown stars having signed 39 years worth of contract extensions worth a combined $494 million: Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider.

“They have been a 10 out of 10,” Reds veteran star Joey Votto said. “Atlanta’s done things perfectly; there’s no question about it. Sure, they’re the model.

“But everyone’s always trying to do better,” he added. “So maybe teams can attempt to top that. It’s hard to because they basically did it as well as you possibly can.”

Are the Reds on deck to take the next best shot to top that?

Cincinnati Reds maintain young core, with eyes on the future

Topping what the Braves have assembled with their young core looked like little more than wishful thinking six months ago, a nice blueprint if enough building materials showed up at the same time.

But the progress the Reds’ top prospects have made since then and the way the team is playing with many of them graduating to the big-league roster over the past few weeks and months has been as eye-popping as the 11-game winning streak they take into the Atlanta series ‒ the franchise’s longest since 1957.

Spencer Steer, Matt McLain, Andrew Abbott, Elly De La Cruz.

Jonathan India, Hunter Greene, T.J. Friedl, Jake Farley, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft before them.

“We want to develop that core, bring that core up and have that core here for a long time,” Reds general manager Nick Krall said. “But it all depends on how everybody fits, and what’s the best fit ‒ what’s the best fit for your organization and then on the other side, what’s the best fit for them.”

Extension talks have proven daunting so far for this team and this group of new faces.

Krall got a six-year, $53 million deal done with triple-digit young ace Hunter Greene earlier this year, but has not been able to close the deal on others the team has approached, including discussions with pitchers Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft.

“We’ve talked to a handful of guys,” Krall said. “It takes two parties to get a deal done. We haven’t found that right spot yet.”

Could the more recent success that has the Reds in first place in the NL Central and talking daily about the collective love in the clubhouse help that process?

“Obviously, when you create an atmosphere and a place that people want to be a part of, it bodes well to people wanting to agree to early extensions and things of that nature,” said Swanson, who made it clear to the Braves he wanted to stay with his hometown team in the years leading up to his walk year.

What about other MLB models?

The Braves’ model is not new.

Krall compared it to what executive John Hart did with the Cleveland Indians in the 1990s with early-career extensions for young players such as Kenny Lofton, Albert Belle, Carlos Baerga and later Jim Thome.

“You’ve seen this a lot,” he said, mentioning some recent vintage Oakland A’s and the Chicago White Sox’ recent rebuild.

The Tampa Bay Rays have extended several players very early in their careers in recent years, including a $182 million deal for the Rays’ Wander Franco last year before he had a year in the big leagues ‒ 14 years after they gave Evan Longoria a long-term deal six days into his big-league career.

On the flip side, the Astros’ five-year, $10 million bet on touted prospect Jon Singleton before he played a day in the majors, and that bust of a contract is often used as the classic example of what can go wrong with such deals.

But it also cost the Astros relative chump change in the age of payrolls measured in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

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The White Sox, on the other hand, invested extensions in young core players such as Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada as they turned the corner on a tanking rebuild ‒ then watched the process collapse these past two seasons, which may compel a selloff by the end of next month.

“As much as it can be praised at times, if it doesn’t pan out, that can hurt, too,” Swanson said. “I’m not saying or hoping that for anybody. But you’re starting to see people take more of a risk on that early (in players’ careers) because you take a big risk in free agency, and if that doesn’t work out, that can haunt you. This is a smaller risk.”

Some players are willing to bet on themselves, too. Pitcher Jeff Samardzija did that a decade ago with the rebuilding Cubs, declined their extension offer and wound up with a $90 million free-agent deal with the Giants.

A few years later on the same team, Kris Bryant refused to engage with the extension concept the team brought to him because it would have meant pushing his first chance at free agency into his age 32 or 33 season. He wound up with a seven-year, $182 million free-agent deal with the Rockies.

“I just think you have to find the right match with your organization and where you are,” Krall said. “Where some guys it’s an easier conversation because they’re younger, some guys it’s an easier conversation because they’re older.”

'It really does take two parties to figure out what the perfect deal is'

Krall is heavily involved these days in meetings to prepare for the draft, and trade conversations have already begun as he looks for help for the pitching staff.

But the way his young big-league already is playing now, the Braves’ model and how the Reds plan to apply will loom long after the Braves leave town Sunday.

“Obviously, you’re projecting payroll out, and you’re projecting the player out,” Krall said. “They’re figuring out, ‘What do I want?’ ‘If I’m taking a discount, what am I taking a discount on?’ ‘Where am I in my career?’

“It really does take two parties to figure out what the perfect deal is.”