Credit: Octopus Energy
European Heat Pump Association says sector could deploy over 43 million heat pumps by the end of the decade
European countries are expected to deploy around 43.2 million heat pumps by the end of the decade, providing low carbon heating systems to around half the continent's buildings, according to a new analysis from the European Heat Pump Association (EPHA).
The trade body this week published new modelling, based on aggregated expert guidance from the EHPA's national member associations, which suggests that with 20 million heat pumps already installed across Europe the sector is on track to have around 60 million units deployed by the end of 2030.
The group said the accelerated roll out would mean around half of buildings in Europe would have access to renewable heating and cooling. It added that the roll out could reach an even higher proportion of homes, given growing demand for heat pumps for use in district heating projects that can provide low carbon heat to hundreds of properties at a time.
According to the projections, France is set to dominate the market with over eight million heat pump installations predicted between 2023 and 2030. Germany is expected to see just over six million installations and Italy over five million.
The UK is expected to lag far behind the European market leaders, with the sector predicting close to one million new installations will be deployed by 2030 - a rate of deployment that suggests little confidence the government's target of 600,000 installations a year by 2028 will be met.
The EHPA welcomed the encouraging growth predictions, but warned that even if 43 million heat pumps are installed by 2030 it would still leave the EU well short of targets set under its REPowerEU package, which are estimated to require 60 million heat pump installations by the end of the decade.
Thomas Nowak, secretary-general of the EHPA, warned further policy reforms were needed to help accelerate the roll out of green heat technologies that will be critical to ensuring long term emissions goals are met.
"Heat pump roll-out is happening, but to decarbonise heating and cooling governments create a more ambitious framework that makes clean heating most affordable for all," he said. "Distorted pricing that favours gas over electricity should be corrected to encourage more end users to switch to clean solutions and reward them with lower heating bills. The electricity price should be no more than double the price of gas."
The report comes as governments across Europe continue to adopt incentive programmes and introduce new bans on the installation of gas boilers in new build properties. However, such policies have faced opposition in some quarters, with the German government, for example, recently forced to delay its target date for ending the installation of new gas boilers.
Want to understand more about the green heat technology roll out? Check out our recent BusinessGreen Intelligence Whitepaper on the topic.
