US-China ties no longer in freefall after Blinken’s visit, but can the rival powers fix deep differences?

United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s long-delayed visit to China - including a brief meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping - has stopped strained ties from plunging further, but analysts are doubtful whether the rival powers can mend their deep divide. 

Both countries had played down prospects for breakthroughs, with Mr Blinken saying that his more than 11 hours of talks over the two-day trip were more about restoring dialogue. 

On Monday (Jun 19), Mr Xi received Mr Blinken in the Great Hall of the People and said the two countries had "made progress and reached agreement" on unspecified issues.

While Mr Blinken’s visit, the first by a US Secretary of State to China in five years, can be labelled as a diplomatic achievement, it is still too early to be optimistic, said observers. 

STILL TOO EARLY TO BE OPTIMISTIC

“The most important thing is that the visit stopped the freefall in the relationship,” said Dr Evan Medeiros, the Cling Family distinguished fellow in US-China Studies at Georgetown University. 

“Blinken's trip opened up high-level channels of communication. It redirected a deteriorating relationship in a more constructive direction.”

But how the relationship responds to the inevitable problems in the future remains an open question, Dr Medeiros told CNA’s Asia First on Tuesday. 

“So I think that the relationship is more stable now. But let's see how long it lasts, and whether or not the relationship is resilient in the face of unanticipated events in the future.”

Mr Blinken went to China expecting to reopen channels of communication, “with the Chinese government being very reserved about that to begin with, so much so that we didn't even know whether Blinken would meet with Xi Jinping”, said Professor Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute. 

But meetings with Mr Xi, Foreign Minister Qin Gang and top diplomat Wang Yi have shown that Mr Blinken’s approach has worked. 

“He may not have secured any agreement with China, but he has re-established a channel of communication and a nod from Xi Jinping that he is okay with that,” Prof Tsang told CNA’s Asia Tonight. 

RESTATING THEIR POSITIONS CLEARLY

On Sunday, Mr Blinken and Mr Qin spoke at length on a range of topics, from trade to the status of self-governed Taiwan. During the meeting lasting nearly eight hours, both agreed that Mr Qin should visit Washington to continue the conversation at a convenient time. 

Mr Blinken then met with Mr Wang for about three hours on Monday, where they touched on the challenges in overcoming the friction between the world’s two largest economies. 

The long conversations gave the two sides an opportunity to restate their positions clearly, said Prof Tsang. 

“There was a lot of repetition and talking past each other, but Blinken essentially was able to put America's position through. 

“So did the Chinese partners of his, without either side feeling that the way they did it would cause the other side to react negatively, so the final symbolic meeting with Xi could take place.”

Mr Blinken had earlier postponed a February China trip after a suspected Chinese spy balloon flew over US airspace. He is the highest-ranking US government official to visit the country since President Joe Biden took office in January 2021.

Before the rare visit, the relationship between the two countries were deteriorating and “there was a risk that the slide could result in something very nasty”, said Prof Tsang. 

“They had many hours of talks and then agreed that we will continue to talk so that we avoid the relationships sliding down further, with neither side conceding on their own positions. So in that sense, they have temporarily, at least, arrested that slide in the relationship.”

HOW LONG WILL STABLE RELATIONS LAST? 

Dr Medeiros believes that such relations will last for at least four to six more months, leading up to Mr Xi's likely visit to the US to participate in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in November.

“But after that, after Xi Jinping pays a visit to the United States, I think that the future of the relationship becomes an open question again,” he noted. 

Analysts expect Mr Blinken’s visit to pave the way for more bilateral meetings between Washington and Beijing. It could also set the stage for meetings between Mr Xi and Mr Biden.

Washington’s game plan moving forward has to involve continuing these high-level meetings and using them to drive progress that is practical and tangible, said experts. 

“So meetings are just meetings. The question is, can you translate those meetings into practical work on challenging issues?” asked Dr Medeiros, noting that Beijing’s words are often in contradiction with its deeds.

“I think that that is going to be the real key to determine whether or not the relationship is on a new and more constructive trajectory, or whether both sides are effectively just using the remainder of the year to buy time to get past Xi Jinping's visit to APEC, and then we're going to be back at intense, unpredictable competition.”

HARD ISSUES TO ADDRESS GOING FORWARD

Among the challenges that the US and China have to address are expanding flights between them and discussing the Chinese exports of chemicals that make fentanyl, the painkiller behind an addiction epidemic in the US.

There are also hard disputes at the heart of their relationship, from differences over the Russia-Ukraine war to opposing views over Taiwan, said Dr Medeiros, adding that it is unclear how the two countries are going to manage these problems.

“These are all issues that are relevant to both the United States and China,” he added. 

“I think that both sides are interested, but it is gonna be a challenge to actually determine if they can turn a political commitment into real work.”