In the battle for public opinion and at the ballot box, Republicans are losing on abortion. They can win, but they need to fight harder. They need to invest more resources, advocate for policies that help mothers, and expose the Democrats' extreme position on abortion. They also need to advocate for reasonable limitations and support exceptions.
Republicans are currently behind in the abortion messaging battle. Crucially, moderate and independent voters believe Republicans favor total restriction, which they deem as extreme. By contrast, they have no idea what the Democratic position is, and tend to give them a pass.
In fact, it is the Democratic and not the Republican position that is extreme. According to the Washington Post, during the 2020 Democratic primary for president, nearly every candidate supported either no restrictions whatsoever on abortion, or the standards set by Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, which in effect means unlimited access. These positions are deeply unpopular, with only 10 percent of voters supporting abortions up to the moment of birth. The Democratic position is not only a moral horror but also deeply unpopular. And yet, Republicans are losing the debate.
In 2022, Republicans lost numerous key races because they followed the traditional GOP approach of "duck and cover" when it came to abortion. This will no longer work. A Gallup poll just before the Dobbs v. Jackson ruling showed Americans evenly split on abortion rights: 49 percent identified as pro-choice and 47 percent identified as pro-life. After Dobbs the ground shifted: 55 percent identified as pro-choice and just 39 percent identified as pro-life. Nearly one in seven Americans suddenly went from not caring about abortion to caring a great deal. Given these fundamentals, Republicans need to engage and not retreat on this issue.
The Democrats smell weakness and they will keep abortion front and center for the foreseeable future. A perfect example is the Wisconsin Supreme Court election that took place in April. Republican candidate Daniel Kelly was heavily outspent and outmaneuvered on abortion by Democrat Janet Protasiewicz. Kelly lost by 11 points, even though Republican Senator Ron Johnson won reelection in the same state just four months earlier.
There is a winning strategy for Republicans on abortion, but it will take money, message discipline, and a clear policy platform. During the 2022 election cycle Republicans were outspent on abortion advertising 45 to 1. When that happens, Democrats control the abortion debate. Instead of creating a platform that discusses reasonable limitations, supports mothers, and clarifies the party's desire for exceptions—areas where Republicans are competitive—overwhelming Democratic money ensures the debate is all about Republican extremism. The GOP will need to commit substantially more resources to shift the conversation and prevent Democrats from misrepresenting their positions.
The American people largely support reasonable limits on abortion. They just need to know that that's what Republicans are fighting for. A lack of message discipline, and the pauper's budget Republicans have devoted to the cause, have allowed Democrats to paint a caricature of the mainstream Republican abortion position in the public's mind.
There is a clear, ethical, perhaps surprisingly popular pro-life platform available for Republicans to embrace. That platform consists of instituting reasonable limits (like 12-15 weeks), holding women innocent under the law, and opposing late-term abortions with exceptions (for rape, incest, fatal fetal anomalies, and when the life of the mother is at risk). Republicans need to present this position to voters and then aggressively promote it.
It is also vital to support policy that helps mothers and incentivizes child birth. That includes expanded health care access for new families, child tax credits during pregnancy, and greatly reducing the costs incurred from childbirth.
Americans are for limits but they're also for exceptions. This duality is key. Almost three in four voters support a limit after 15 weeks and two-thirds or more support abortions at any point to save the life of the mother or in cases of rape or incest. Building policy within these lines is a start, but not enough on its own. Republicans need to show compassion for women and the babies they create. Policies like expanded child tax credits are a creative way to show support, but even subtler things like tone in messaging will go a long way. Republicans can win on abortion, but they must recognize it's a war of attrition that they cannot ignore.
Sam Kay is a pollster and elections analyst for OnMessage Inc., a Republican consulting firm. He has worked with political campaigns, PACs, non-profits, issue advocacy groups, and public and private corporations to help them win campaigns and meet strategic goals. He was also political director for the Jason Miyares campaign for attorney general in Virginia. Twitter: @NYCSamKay
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
