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Seafarms Group Limited (ASX:SFG) May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon With Recent 27% Price Plummet

Seafarms Group Limited (ASX:SFG) shares have had a horrible month, losing 27% after a relatively good period beforehand. The recent drop completes a disastrous twelve months for shareholders, who are sitting on a 69% loss during that time.

Although its price has dipped substantially, there still wouldn't be many who think Seafarms Group's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Australia's Food industry is similar at about 0.9x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

Check out our latest analysis for Seafarms Group

ps-multiple-vs-industry
ps-multiple-vs-industry

How Seafarms Group Has Been Performing

For instance, Seafarms Group's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Seafarms Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For Seafarms Group?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like Seafarms Group's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 9.3%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 30% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 5.3% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that Seafarms Group is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

What Does Seafarms Group's P/S Mean For Investors?

Seafarms Group's plummeting stock price has brought its P/S back to a similar region as the rest of the industry. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We find it unexpected that Seafarms Group trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

Having said that, be aware Seafarms Group is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 3 of those are concerning.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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