Russian President Vladimir Putin is moving to tighten control of the Wagner Group, which is led by tycoon Yevgeny Prigozhin, a think tank has said.
A demand by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu that Wagner Group troops sign contracts with his ministry by July 1 is likely part of an effort to restrict Prigozhin's independence, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), based in Washington D.C., said in its latest analysis of the conflict in Ukraine on Tuesday.
Prigozhin rejected the order given by Shoigu on Saturday. His paramilitary outfit, played a critical role in Russia's efforts to seize the industrial town of Bakhmut in Ukraine's eastern region. He ramped up public criticism of Russia's military leadership, including Shoigu, before his troops withdrew from Bakhmut this month. He has accused the minister of intentionally depriving his fighters of ammunition and support.
"Those orders and decrees from Shoigu, they apply to employees of the Ministry of Defense and military personnel," he said on Telegram. "[Private Military Company] Wagner will not sign any contracts with Shoigu."
Prigozhin also published a claimed segment of a letter from the Russian Defense Ministry, which instructs Wagner and other volunteer military formations to inform the Joint Staff of Russian Grouping of Forces about their numbers of forces, reserves, and the supplies they have received from the Russian ministry by June 15, the ISW noted.
Later, Prigozhin claimed that his paramilitary group was receiving 2.5 times more recruits after the recent "provocative announcements about the need to terminate the existence of Wagner private military company." He also said men are signing up to join Wagner to avoid signing contracts with Russia's Defense Ministry.
"The Russian MoD formalization efforts are likely intended to centralize control of Russian irregular personnel and supplies to respond to Ukraine's counteroffensive, as well as restrict Prigozhin's independence," the ISW said.
The think tank cited a Wagner-affiliated milblogger who claimed that Shoigu's latest decree legalizes the destruction of private military companies and that the Defense Ministry will use this decree to stop providing Wagner forces with ammunition, medical assistance, and military equipment.
It also cited Viktor Sobolev, a member of the Russian State Duma Defense Committee, as saying the Defense Ministry may ban the Wagner Group from operating in Ukraine without first signing a military contract.
"One prominent milblogger claimed that the timing of Shoigu's announcement is strange, given that Ukrainian forces just launched a counteroffensive, and another noted that the Russian MoD is prioritizing bureaucratically eliminating Wagner instead of focusing on the counteroffensive," the ISW said.
Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to Ukraine's minister of internal affairs, weighed in on the dispute, saying Shoigu's order "may be a consequence of his conflict with Prigozhin and an attempt to take Wagner operatives under his control."
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