The worst fears of many of us journalists working in the Northeast that the violence could linger have turned into a painful reality. The inhuman murder of a seven-year-old and his mother is just the most recent act of dastardly violence that has engulfed the state and despite several claims to the contrary, the state is far from returning to normalcy.
This is why it feels almost wrong to talk about the economic impact of the Manipur violence at a time the state is still counting its dead, and the civilians are hoping, almost against hope, that no more names are added to the list.
But let us assume Manipur returns to normalcy. Or even better, let us assume violence had never hit Manipur. Where was the state in terms of development and what was in store for the state’s over three million people? There were promises, yes, and there was also hope.
Joblessness Contributing To Unrest?
Manipur is not a rich state by any stretch of the imagination. Let us take a look at some numbers. An Indian Express report published on May 9, 2023, pointed out that a “worsening employment crisis linked to a slowdown in its services sectors — a key driver of the hill state’s economy — seems to be a contributing factor for the unrest in Manipur.”
The report added that “Manipur had one of the highest unemployment rates for the age group of 15 years and above, at 9 per cent, more than double the national unemployment rate of 4.1 per cent in 2021-22, and higher than other states in the Northeast.”
Every region within Manipur fared badly in joblessness. The unemployment rate in the Kuki and Naga regions was estimated to be 9.5 percent for 2021-22, while the unemployment rate in the urban areas, where much of the Meitei population lives, was only marginally lower at 7.6 percent. Nearly 65 percent of men in the state were reported as self-employed in rural areas, compared to the all-India rate of 59 per cent.
In absolute numbers too, the joblessness is scary for a small state like Manipur. One of the figures we have is from a 2020 PTI story, which had quoted the Manipur government claiming that the total number of unemployed youth in the state had reduced by half between 2014 and 2018. The then Labour and Employment Minister Th Radheshyam Singh, replying to a question raised in the Assembly during Question Hour and quoting the Directorate of Labour and Employment, said the number of unemployed youths in Manipur was 721,824 in 2014, which fell to 346,690 in 2018.
Now, compare these numbers to the Census 2011 data which recorded Manipur’s population at 2.8 million. The unemployed constitute a staggering 12 percent of the total population.
Such is the condition that the perennial lack of water in the Imphal Valley has, as I learnt during the election coverage last year, provided the Valley’s youth with one of the biggest avenues for employment (manning water tankers). Manipur, meanwhile, also faces the risk of a lot of people sliding below the poverty line.
Promise Of Progress Belied
It is in this dismal scenario that the violence erupted, laying waste to the state, sowing strong seeds of mistrust among communities that could endure for decades, and undoing years of planning and strategising to bring the state to the modern era. One of the biggest investments in the state has been towards bringing the Railways to the state.
Last year’s horrific tragedy in Noney aside, where over 50 people lost their lives following a landslide, the onset of Railways remains perhaps the most promising hope for the region. But what will assure us now that the railway tracks will not be attacked?
Peace is the number one pre-requirement for sustained, long-term investments. For the longest period, the Northeast remained an afterthought in terms of investments of any kind: even educational institutions remained far and few. Think of it: what industries spring to mind when we talk of the Northeast?
The Manipur government, at least in theory, was trying to address this malaise. Earlier this year, the media in the Northeast, especially in Manipur, was abuzz with news of investments. In February 2023, CM Biren Singh informed that he had been assured by delegates of the US taking part in the plenary session of the B20 meeting held in Imphal that a US-based company (he did not name) was willing to invest $500 million dollars in Manipur.
Delegates of Argentina and Peru had also expressed their desire to employ female nurses from the state in healthcare centres in their respective countries on learning that a good number of female nurses from Manipur were currently working in Japan.
One can only wonder what the aforementioned American company is thinking about now. Or should I wonder if they even know what is happening in Manipur?
Amit Kumar is executive editor of Eastmojo.com, a Northeast-based news portal. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.