Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
UPDATED: June 8, 2023
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Weekly Commentary: The shows centered around serial killers seem to be in the best position for Emmy recognition this year.
We’re likely going to see five nominees in this category, pending some shocking submissions from independent networks. That makes this race even tighter.
My current method of mapping out this category is tied to the potential acting nominations from each of the series. If a show looks poised to nab two or more acting noms, they could be safe to show up here.
With three predicted acting noms, I feel good about Netflix’s “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” and Apple TV’s “Black Bird.” That leaves the potential double-dippers — Netflix’s “Beef,” FX’s “Fleishman is in Trouble” and “The Patient,” HBO’s “Love & Death” and Showtime’s “George & Tammy.”
If Riley Keough and Sam Claflin’s buzz can increase over the next week, Prime Video’s “Daisy Jones & the Six” could truly make a play while potential dark horses include National Geographic’s “A Small Light,” Disney’s “Obi-Wan Kenobi” and HBO’s “White House Plumbers.”
For the Emmys to nominate six limited series, there must be 80 submissions for the category. As it stands, we are tracking 30-40. There are always surprise shows that are submitted by networks in order to beef up the numbers, but it looks unlikely we’ll get close to the required number, leaving five series vying for attention. That can yield some shocking inclusions and exclusions.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Emmy predictions in all categories.
Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
- “Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
- “Fleishman is in Trouble” (FX)
- “Beef” (Netflix)
- “Love & Death” (HBO)
Next in Line
- “Daisy Jones & the Six” (Prime Video)
- “George & Tammy” (Showtime)
- “A Small Light” (National Geographic)
- “The Patient” (FX)
- “Obi-Wan Kenobi” (Disney+)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “Swarm” (Prime Video)
- “White House Plumbers” (HBO)
- “Tiny Beautiful Things” (Hulu)
- “Welcome to Chippendales” (Hulu)
- “Mrs. Davis” (Peacock)
- “Dead Ringers” (Prime Video)
- “The English” (Prime Video)
- “Paul T. Goldman” (Peacock)
- “Great Expectations” (Hulu)
- “This is Going to Hurt” (AMC)
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**
- “This is Going to Hurt” (AMC)
- “Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
- “Extrapolations” (Apple TV+)
- “Five Days at Memorial” (Apple TV+)
- “The Last Thing He Told Me” (Apple TV+)
- “Little America” (Apple TV+)
- “Obi-Wan Kenobi” (Disney+)
- “Accused” (Fox)
- “American Horror Stories” (FX)
- “American Horror Story: NYC” (FX)
- “Fleishman is in Trouble” (FX)
- “Irma Vep” (HBO)
- “Love & Death” (HBO)
- “White House Plumbers” (HBO)
- “Great Expectations” (Hulu)
- “Mike” (Hulu)
- “The Patient” (Hulu)
- “Tiny Beautiful Things” (Hulu)
- “Welcome to Chippendales” (Hulu)
- “A Spy Among Friends” (MGM+)
- “A Small Light” (National Geographic)
- “Beef” (Netflix)
- “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
- “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
- “From Scratch” (Netflix)
- “Kaleidoscope” (Netflix)
- “Transatlantic” (Netflix)
- “The Watcher” (Netflix)
- “The Witcher: Blood Origin” (Netflix)
- “Tom Jones: Masterpiece” (PBS)
- “The Best Man: The Final Chapters” (Peacock)
- “A Friend of the Family” (Peacock)
- “Last Light” (Peacock)
- “Mrs. Davis” (Peacock)
- “Paul T. Goldman” (Peacock)
- “Chloe” (Prime Video)
- “Daisy Jones & the Six” (Prime Video)
- “Dead Ringers” (Prime Video)
- “The English” (Prime Video)
- “Swarm” (Prime Video)
- “George & Tammy” (Showtime)
** This list or category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.
2022 category winner: “The White Lotus” (HBO) — Season 1 — Mike White, David Bernad, Nick Hall (executive producers); Mark Kamine (co-executive producer)
Emmy Awards Predictions Categories
DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | REALITY (COMPETITION, STRUCTURED, UNSTRUCTURED, HOST)
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories
GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED |
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.