Mumbai, Thane and Palghar may see rain for 4 days from today: IMD

PUNE/MUMBAI: Biparjoy, the cyclone brewing over the Arabian Sea, is moving northnorthwestward and could drive moisture away from India and affect onset and progression of monsoon, says climate expert Roxy Mathew Koll.
Mumbai’s normal monsoon onset date is June 11. But with onset not having happened over Kerala yet, the city’s wait could get longer.
IMD, in an alert late on Tuesday evening, said, “Deep depression intensified into cyclonic storm Biparjoy over east-central Arabian Sea at 1730 hours IST. To move nearly northwards and intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during the next 24 hours. ” The Met department, in its fiveday forecast, said light to moderate rain was “very likely” from June 7-10 in parts of Mumbai, Thane and Palghar.
Koll added an exceptionally warm Arabian Sea, a weak monsoon onset and favourable Madden Julian Oscillation conditions were favouring the cyclone. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is the major fluctuation in tropical weather on weekly to monthly timescales.
“The sea surface temperatures are hovering between 31° and 32°C, 2-4°C above climatological average. This warming trend in the Arabian Sea is a consequence of climate change, and it is intensifying cyclones. In the Arabian Sea, the vertical wind shear is currently weaker than usual, resulting in subdued monsoon onset. This weakened monso- on scenario aids vertical development of cyclones,” he said.
The increase in cyclone activity in the Arabian Sea, he said, could be directly attributed to rising ocean temperatures and enhanced availability of moisture caused by global warming. Vineet Kumar Singh, researcher from Typhoon Research Centre, Jeju National University, South Korea, told TOI, “There is no cyclone threat for any coast of India, including Maharashtra. The cyclone will have no impact on the west coast. ”