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Expected pause, surprise on stance?

A change in stance could be inferred by the markets as a definite sign of rates peaking. MPC needs to be comfortable with expressing the softer-than 'pause but not a pivot' view of the April policy

Samiran Chakraborty
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das
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RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das

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A positive growth surprise from the gross domestic product (GDP) data and a downside inflation surprise from the recent consumer price index (CPI) prints provide a touch of ‘Goldilocks’ in the backdrop of the June Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. The predictability quotient is high for the June MPC as there is near unanimity among market participants that it is going to keep the policy rates unchanged. An encouraging softening in the core inflation momentum provides the space to observe the lagged effect of past rate hikes in nudging the headline CPI towards the medium-term target of 4 per cent, and also the risks of any unfavorable monsoon outcome. On the other hand, with the 4QFY23 GDP data coming out to be stronger than expected, there is no urgent need for a cyclical monetary policy support to growth. Most high-frequency growth indicators are also not ringing any alarm bells. Despite stronger headline growth, the composition of growth is favouring invest
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First Published: Jun 05 2023 | 12:46 PM IST

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