On the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center says Tropical Depression Two has formed in the Gulf of Mexico off Florida’s coast.

The NHC declared an unnamed subtropical storm had formed in January, which is why this is the second named system. If it grows into a tropical storm, it would become Tropical Storm Arlene.

The 5 p.m. EDT advisory said the center of the system was located about 305 miles west-northwest of Fort Myers with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph moving west-northwest at 2 mph. The system is expected to begin moving to the south by Friday gradually increasing its forward speed. There are no coastal watches or warnings with this advisory.

“Some modest intensification is forecast, and the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or tomorrow,” the advisory stated, “However, the system should begin to weaken by Friday night and degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday.”

The forecast expects it to become Tropical Storm Arlene by 2 a.m. with 40 mph sustained winds and 50 mph gusts.

The system spun up with better organization since Wednesday when the NHC had given the low-pressure area only a 10% chance to form.

Earlier projections expected the system to move across Florida this weekend and into the Atlantic, but the latest forecast from the National Weather Service projects the low pressure area to drift south toward Cuba and weaken before eventually moving east out into the Atlantic early next week.

The shift doesn’t mean rain chances are gone for Central Florida. The NWS in Melbourne updated its forecast for Thursday morning saying the mix of the low pressure with normal daytime heating will still bring the chance for 2-3 inches of rain with 5-6 inches and localized flooding in some areas through Saturday, with bigger rain chances in the western inland part of the Florida peninsula. Gusts of 40-50 mph and some hail chance is possible, the NWS said.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft had flown into the system Thursday afternoon.

The National Oceania and Atmospheric Administration’s seasonal forecast released in May projects 2023 to be an average season with between 12 and 17 named storms. Of those, five to nine would grow into hurricanes, and of those one to three would reach major hurricane strength of 111 mph sustained winds or greater.

The hurricane seasons runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

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