A decade after the Arab Spring turned into an Arab winter, a hopeful bloom of a different kind is descending on West Asia. With the solitary exception of Sudan, peace, confidence and promise of an economic revival are on the horizon on a scale unseen in three-quarters of a century.
A new outpouring of nationalism along with a new openness to multipolarity stretching from Oman to Egypt and from Turkey to Somalia requires India to be nimble in its approaches to the region, which has seen a recent thrust in diplomatic initiatives by New Delhi after a gap of several decades.
The centrepiece of a new Arab diplomatic Spring is Syria's readmission into the regional community of nations at an Arab League Summit in Jeddah two weeks ago. Its significance went far beyond merely ending 12 years of Syria's exclusion from the Arab fold. Traditional kisses planted on both cheeks of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad by Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, as he walked into the Summit venue also consolidated the latter's acceptance in the Arab world after ostracism — at Washington's behest — for the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.
Historic Developments
The historic Arab League Summit convened in the footsteps of an equally historic rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia — arranged by China — which took the world by surprise. The momentum of the Abraham Accords between Israel and four Arab states in 2020 and 2021, may have stalled, but its offshoot, the I2U2, is taking off. I2U2 stands for India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and the United States of America, which have come together for joint collaborations. The I2U2 is making significant forays in the economic sphere, most notably through initiatives, which are to India's advantage so far. These include the setting up of mega food parks in India with UAE investment and a renewable energy project with 300 megawatts of wind and solar capacity in Gujarat initiated with a $330 million feasibility study funded by the US.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's confidence that "bilateral ties and cooperation on global issues will continue to grow" between India and Turkey assumes great significance in this context. Modi's tweet was put out soon after the final results of voting in Turkey's presidential election declared Recep Tayyip Erdogan as the winner. New Delhi and Ankara have not had the best of relations as long as anyone can remember, but Erdogan's re-election means that Turkey will be an important player in regional affairs: much more than it was in its President's earlier terms because of a changing global environment. World leaders are already courting Turkey in the knowledge that Erdogan will be around for the next five years, and that his will be a forceful presence in the region. Erdogan this week forced Sweden to impose draconian restrictions on supporters of an independent Kurdistan, including Kurdish regions in south-eastern Turkey. New Swedish legislation, which went into effect this week to appease Turkey, goes so far as to prohibit meetings of Kurdish groups inside Sweden and even prevent food from being given to those groups whom Turkey has outlawed. North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will probably be the first international figure to meet Erdogan following his re-election to persuade the President to lift his veto on Sweden's accession to NATO membership.
Smooth Generational Changes
Admirably, almost all the Arab Gulf states have recently completed generational changes in leadership peacefully, which is a change from the way political transitions took place there until only a few generations ago. Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and the UAE all have new, younger leaders who assumed their mantles as heads of state or government in an orderly manner. Qatar did the same shortly earlier. In Saudi Arabia, a similar generational change will occur soon. Since the Kingdom is a heavyweight in the whole Arab world and because the Saudi King is the Custodian of Islam’s holiest places, the transfer of power to the Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, will be watched and analysed by the entire world. If Saudi Arabia too peacefully completes a generational transformation, with its far-reaching global implications, it will be a testimony to the strength of traditional Arab Gulf institutions. The international community’s faith in their stability will then grow manifold.
It is a good augury for peace and continued prosperity in the Gulf that through regional reconciliation efforts, Qatar and three of its neighbours, which were in an adversarial position patched up their most serious differences and resumed relations. Successful Kuwaiti mediation in the disputes demonstrated that these states had attained a level of maturity to look after their core interests themselves without outside involvement. Resolution of these intra-Gulf quarrels was important to India because of its huge diaspora in the region, and its stakes in the Gulf both as a critical source of energy and of foreign exchange through expatriate remittances.
In the post-World War II and post-decolonisation decades, Arab unity was an aspirational idea, but a mirage in reality. Countries were merged and federations or unions were created in the hope that unity of language, religion and culture could make the Arab world one. Wiser by bad experiences, the emerging Arab leaders are now pragmatic and are attempting what is possible, given their national constraints. This trend will gain momentum for common good in the coming years. Some problems remain: Yemen is one such, but the ceasefire there has held for a year. Libya is another. Parts of Syria continue to be occupied by rebel forces aided and abetted by the West. But overall, the Arab world has never looked so promising in a long time.
KP Nayar has extensively covered West Asia and reported from Washington as a foreign correspondent for 15 years. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.