Mortality rate in 2021 highest ever in the Kerala, pneumonia deaths peaked by 49%

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: In 2021, when the second wave of Covid-19 wreaked havoc, the all-cause mortality in Kerala was 3.39 lakh deaths - an increase of over 88,665 deaths when compared to 2020 - according to the latest vital statistics report published by the Department of Economics and Statistics.
The crude death rate (CDR), which is the total number of deaths per year per 1,000 population, recorded in 2021 was 9.66, arguably the highest ever CDR recorded in Kerala -- an overview of CDRs over three decades shows that the previous highest CDR was recorded in 2019 and 2013 at 7.7. However, the breakup of the death numbers point to more alarming aspects than just the CDR: notably, the exponential increase of deaths by pneumonia (49% and directly attributable to Covid) and the rise in deaths among the 55-70 age group, among the most vulnerable groups for whom the government had promised fool-proof protection.
Moreover, the latest mortality figures for 2021 are far higher than the numbers presented in the Assembly and in Parliament thereby lending credence to the charge made by several health experts that Kerala significantly under-reported Covid-related deaths.
While the percentage of deaths due to leading causes like heart attack, asthma and cancer showed a dip from previous years, deaths due to pneumonia, senility and other causes recorded a marked increase from previous years in 2021. Deaths due to pneumonia increased by 49% from 2020 and senility related deaths increased from 54,124 (2020) to 68,104 in 2021. Deaths due to other causes also increased by 37% between 2020 and 2021. Together, deaths due to pneumonia, senility and other causes accounted for 37,441 deaths in 2021, 11% of total deaths recorded in the state.
The vital statistics report does not show Covid as cause of death, however the higher proportion of deaths in certain categories attest to the impact of Covid 19, according to experts.
Rise in number of deaths in 2021 was expected: Doctor
D r Arun NM, the internal medicine expert who had often flagged undercounting of Covid deaths, said that the exponential increase in number of deaths in 2021 is along the expected lines. ``This was expected given the way Delta variant affected people in Kerala. The increase in the number of deaths related to senility, pneumonia can be attributed to Covid-19," he said. Distribution of deaths by the months of occurrence shows that the number of registered deaths increased from 21,407 in April to 30,820 in July and then peaked to 34,646 in September. The highest percentages were recorded for the months of June, July, September and October. In 2021, the percentage of deaths increased nominally in the age group 55- 70 and above whereas it recorded a slight dip for the age groups 15-45.
As per the parliament data furnished in March 2023, the cumulative Covid deaths in Kerala (for 2020, 2021, 2022 and till 2023 March) was 71,602, however vital statistics figures put the additional number of deaths for a single year at over 88,000. Assembly figures show that the total official Covid deaths for 2020 and 2021 was 54,395 which again is significantly lower than the additional deaths registered in 2021. Analysis of registered deaths based on time of occurrence shows that delayed registration, which is done after 1 year of death, was recorded for a nominal number of deaths in 2021; less than 5,000 deaths.
TOI had reported based on RTI data in 2021 that Covid-19 death registrations in local bodies in the state picked up at an alarming pace during the second wave, going from 405 Covid deaths a month to over 10,000 death registrations in May. Between March and May 2021, official death toll during the second wave was just around 4500. The registration figures put the number for three months at 12,564, nearly 3 times what the health department published.