Donald Trump's Lead Over Ron DeSantis More Than Doubles

Former President Donald Trump's lead over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in the 2024 Republican presidential primary has more than doubled since January, according to a new poll.

DeSantis, whose embrace of right-wing culture war issues propelled him to the national spotlight, has long been viewed as the top potential rival to Trump in the GOP primary. However, recent polls signaled that conservative voters appear to be coalescing around Trump, who served as president from 2017 to 2021. The polling shift comes as Trump has seen a number of legal losses in recent months and DeSantis's culture war clash with Disney has appeared to turn off some conservatives.

A Harvard-Harris poll from January found the former president winning support from 48 percent of Republican voters, while 28 percent said they planned to back DeSantis—amounting to a 20-point lead for Trump. This poll was conducted from January 18 to 19 among 2,050 registered voters.

By May, however, Trump's lead had grown to 42 points, according to the latest Harvard-Harris poll. Fifty-eight percent of Republican voters said they planned to back Trump, while DeSantis's share of voters dipped to 16 percent. No other candidates polled at more than 5 percent, despite several other high-profile Republicans running for president. The May poll was conducted from May 17 to 18 among 2,004 registered voters.

Newsweek reached out to DeSantis's office and the Trump campaign for comment via email.

DeSantis has not formally announced a presidential campaign, but is widely expected to make his run official in the coming weeks. He has sought to raise his name recognition by making appearances across the United States, including early-voting states like Iowa, to promote his book in recent weeks, fueling speculation that a campaign announcement is imminent.

But other recent polls have suggested DeSantis's support has dropped in the Republican Party as conservative voters flock to the former president.

According to a FiveThirtyEight polling aggregate, Trump is averaging 53.5 percent support in recent polls, while DeSantis is receiving roughly 20.8 percent. On March 1, Trump was averaging 46 percent while DeSantis averaged 29.6 percent.

Trump has mocked DeSantis over his polling, writing in a recent Truth Social post, "After campaigning for five months, and going nowhere but down, it looks like Ron DeSanctimonious will soon be entering the race. He has ZERO chance, and MAGA will never forget!"

Polling Shift Comes Amid Recent Trump, DeSantis Controversies

Meanwhile, Trump and DeSantis have found themselves facing new scrutiny over separate issues in recent weeks.

Trump, who is facing a number of legal investigations, was most recently hit with a courtroom loss when a Manhattan grand jury found him liable for sexual abuse—but not rape—in the lawsuit filed by former Elle columnist E. Jean Carroll earlier this month. That came after he was indicted in March in Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's probe into whether an alleged hush money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels violated campaign finance laws ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

The former president has maintained his innocence in these cases, accusing prosecutors of engaging in politically-motivated witch hunts, with many of his supporters appearing to agree. Surveys conducted in the aftermath of the indictment pointed to a surge in his popularity among the GOP electorate.

Meanwhile, DeSantis has faced criticisms from some Republicans over his battle against Disney. After the company, which employees tens of thousands of people around Orlando, spoke out against Florida's "Don't Say Gay" bill, the Florida governor has sought to dissolve past agreements allowing it a degree of self governance, sparking accusations of political retribution. Polls suggest the company remains more popular, with some prominent conservatives speaking out against this.

"He spends way too much time on the culture wars, and that begins with Disney and includes many other things," former Trump White House counselor Kellyanne Conway told Fox Business host Larry Kudlow on April 20. "Woke is important, but you can't have that as a replacement for a bold, growth-centric economic plan."