Thailand opposition crushes military parties in election rout

After trouncing parties with military ties, Thailand’s opposition won a shock election victory on Sunday, setting the stage for a flurry of deal-making over establishing a government in an effort to end nearly ten years of conservative, army-backed rule.

With 99 per cent of the votes counted, the liberal Move Forward Party and the populist Pheu Thai Party were far ahead, but it was far from clear that either would form the next government due to parliamentary procedures that were drafted by the military after its coup in 2014.

To win power, the opposition parties will need to reach agreements and assemble a wide range of allies, including senators nominated by the junta who have sided with military parties and who will vote on the future prime minister and the composition of the government.

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The election on Sunday was the most recent round in a protracted power struggle between Pheu Thai, the populist juggernaut of the wealthy Shinawatra family, and a grouping of old money, conservatives, and military figures with sway over important institutions at the centre of two decades of unrest.

But the staggering performance by Move Forward, riding a wave of support from young voters, will test the resolve of Thailand’s establishment and ruling parties after it came close to a clean sweep of the capital Bangkok on a platform of institutional reform and dismantling monopolies.

Move Forward came top, followed closely by Pheu Thai, the preliminary results showed. According to a Reuters calculation, both were set to win more than triple the number of seats of Palang Pracharat, the political vehicle of the junta and the army-backed United Thai Nation party.

Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat, a 42-year-old former executive of a ride-hailing app, described the outcome as “sensational” and vowed to stay true to his party’s values when forming a government.

“It will be anti-dictator-backed, military-backed parties, for sure,” he told reporters. “It’s safe to assume that minority government is no longer possible here in Thailand.”

He said he remained open to an alliance with Pheu Thai but has set his sights set on being prime minister.

“It is now clear the Move Forward Party has received the overwhelming support from the people around the country,” he said on Twitter.

Major Blow

The preliminary results will be a crushing blow for the military and its allies. But with parliamentary rules on their side and influential figures behind them and involved behind the scenes, they could still have a role in government.

Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, a retired general who led the last coup, had campaigned on continuity after nine years in charge, warning a change in government could lead to conflict.

On Sunday, he slipped away quietly from his United Thai Nation party headquarters, where there were few supporters to be seen.

A handful of staff sat beside plates of uneaten food as a giant television screen showed a live speech by Move Forward’s leader.

“I hope the country will be peaceful and prosper,” Prayuth told reporters. “I respect democracy and the election. Thank you.”

Pheu Thai had been expected to win having won most votes in every ballot since 2001, including two landslide victories. Three of its four governments have been ousted from office.

Founded by the polarising self-exiled tycoon Thaksin Shinawatra, Pheu Thai remains hugely popular among the working classes and was banking on being swept back to power in a landslide on nostalgia for its populist policies like cheap healthcare, micro-loans and generous farming subsidies.

Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn, 36, has been tipped to follow in the footsteps of her father and of her aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra, and become prime minister. Yingluck and Thaksin were both overthrown in coups.

Paetongtarn said she was happy for Move Forward, but it was too soon to discuss alliances.

“The voice of the people is most important,” she said.

Move Forward saw a late-stage rally in opinion polls and was betting on 3.3 million first-time voters getting behind its liberal agenda, including plans to weaken the military’s political role and amend a strict law on royal insults that critics say is used to stifle dissent.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, said Move Forward’s surge demonstrated a major shift in Thai politics.

“Pheu Thai fought the wrong war. Pheu Thai fought the populism war that it already won,” he said.

“Move Forward takes the game to the next level with institutional reform. That’s the new battleground in Thai politics.”

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