Vietnam's 2023 GDP growth forecast lowered to 6.5%: Standard Chartered

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) will make another 50 basis points (bps) cut in the refinancing rate to 5 per cent by the end of second quarter, followed by rates on hold until end-2025, Standard Chartered forecast.

However, it saw upside risk to the rate forecast, especially towards year-end, as the SBV may focus more on financial stability than growth.

The bank also turned more cautious on the external front. April macro indicators showed a moderation.

In April, the country’s exports declined by 17.1 per cent year on year (YoY), imports fell by 20.5 per cent YoY and industrial production barely rose. The trade surplus rose to $1.5 billion from $700 million in March.

In the first four months of the year, exports fell by 11.8 per cent YoY; imports were down by 15.4 per cent YoY with a trade surplus of $6.4 billion.

Inflation was 2.8 per cent in April, easing for the third month in a row and down from 4.9 per cent in January.

Core inflation increased by 4.6 per cent as retail sales saw a robust growth of 11.5 per cent.

Disbursed foreign direct investment (FDI) in January-April 2023 totalled $5.9 billion—down by 1.2 per cent YoY, while pledged FDI was $8.9 billion—down by 17.9 per cent YoY.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)