Turkey Elections Updates: Erdogan's Support Falls Under 50 Percent, Runoff Vote Likely

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s support in a crucial election slipped under the 50-percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff on May 28, state media reported Sunday.

Erdogan was picking up 49.94 percent of the vote with 89.2 percent of the ballots counted, against 44.3 percent of the vote for opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the Anadolu state news agency said.

Turkey’s presidential election appears to be heading towards a runoff, as both Tayyip Erdogan and opposition rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu claim the lead but may fall short of the 50% threshold for an outright victory.

Initial results showed Erdogan in a comfortable position, but as the count progressed, his lead diminished, setting the stage for a runoff on May 28.

Each side dismissed the other’s count, with no official result declared. Ankara’s opposition mayor Mansur Yavas stated that their party’s count indicated Kilicdaroglu was ahead with 47.42%, while Erdogan had 46.48%.

Polling stations in the election closed at 5 p.m. (1400 GMT). More than 64 million Turks were eligible to vote at nearly 192,000 polling stations, including more than 6 million first-time voters. Over 3.4 million voters overseas completed the voting by May 9.

Why Erdogan Might Lose Election?

After his AK Party (AKP) came to power 20 years ago, Turkey’s longest-serving leader led the country towards modernisation with new bridges, hospitals and airports, and built a military industry sought by foreign states.

However, his volatile economic policy of low-interest rates, which set off a spiralling cost of living crisis and inflation, left him prey to voters’ anger.  Economists say Erdogan’s calls for low interest rates sent inflation soaring to 85% last year, and the lira slumping to one-tenth of its value against the dollar over the last decade.

Erdogan’s political opponent Kilicdaroglu has pledged to return to more orthodox economic policy and to restore the independence of the Turkish central bank.

Voters are also angry at his government’s slow response to a devastating earthquake in southeast Turkey that killed 50,000 people.

Kilicdaroglu is the joint presidential candidate of the six-party main opposition alliance and the chairman of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), which was established by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk - the founder of modern Turkey.

Erdogan’s critics say his government has muzzled dissent, eroded rights and brought the judicial system under its sway, a charge denied by officials.

What Do Opinion Polls Say?

Opinion polls have given Erdogan’s main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who heads a six-party alliance, a slight lead, with two polls on Friday showing him above the 50% threshold needed to win outright. If neither wins more than 50% of the vote on Sunday, a runoff will be held on May 28.

Polls show Kilicdaroglu winning the youth vote — nearly 10% of the electorate — by a two-to-one margin.

What Are The Key Issues?

While voter turnout in Turkey is traditionally strong, reflecting citizens’ belief in democratic balloting, the country has experienced a suppression of freedom of expression and assembly under Erdogan.

Additionally, it faces a steep cost-of-living crisis, with critics blaming the government’s mishandling of the economy. Erdogan’s belief that low interest rates tame inflation, contrary to orthodox economic theory, has led to pressure on the central bank to reflect his view.

Although official statistics indicate a decrease in inflation, independent experts believe that costs continue to rise at a much higher rate.

Furthermore, Turkey is grappling with the aftermath of a powerful earthquake that devastated 11 southern provinces in February, resulting in the loss of over 50,000 lives in unsafe buildings.

Erdogan’s government has faced criticism for its delayed and inadequate response to the disaster, as well as its lax implementation of building codes, which worsened the casualties and suffering.

(With inputs from Reuters, AP & AFP)