Congress wrests another state from BJP, wins big in Karnataka: Trend advantage or winning strategy?

NEW DELHI: The Congress has wrested Karnataka from the BJP defeating the saffron party by a huge margin in the southern state. This big victory is significant for the grand old party as it is the second state that it has won in a direct contest with the saffron party in recent times.
In December 2022, the Congress defeated the BJP in Himachal Pradesh winning 40 out of the 68 seats in the state. The BJP was reduced to 25 seats from the 44 it had won in 2017.
The Congress is inching towards its second best performance in the state. The party's best performance was in 1989 when it had won 178 seats. Ten years later in 1999 the party won 132 seats. With a voteshare of 43%, which is an increase of 5% compared to 2018, the Congress is all set to better its 1999 record.


With this win, the Congress will now have governments in four states - Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka. The win will give momentum to the Congress as it gears up for key electoral battles ahead leading to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Here's a look at what may have helped the Congress in Karnataka

Anti-incumbency against BJP
One of the biggest advantages that the Congress perhaps had in Karnataka was the anti-incumbency against the Bommai-led BJP government in the state which was battling allegations of corruption.
Karnataka, like Himachal Pradesh, followed the trend of alternating governments between the Congress and the BJP. In fact, no party had been voted back to power in Karnataka for the last 38 years.
Thus, the Congress had an advantage, but it still needed to capitalise on BJP's anti-incumbency and emerge victorious.
The grand old party was in a similar position in Uttarakhand in 2022, but it failed to win the state as the BJP managed to buck anti-incumbency.
But was it just the trend advantage that helped the Congress or did the grand old party had a winning strategy?
Focus on local issues, local leaders
The Congress campaign in Karnataka was completely focussed on local issues of the state. One of the central themes of the party's messaging was the issue of alleged corruption under the state government. Despite several attempts by the BJP to shift the narrative to national issues, the Congress kept on harping on the issues concerning the state.
Rahul Gandhi, who held quite a few rallies and meetings in the state, did not overplay the Adani-Hindenburg issue in his speeches. Ever since the Adani issue came to the fore, it has been the central theme of Rahul's attacks on the BJP and Prime Minister Modi. He did raise the issue in his rallies but limited its use to attacking the BJP over allegations of corruption.
The Congress campaign was spearheaded by its two heavyweights former chief minister Siddaramaiah and state party chief DK Shivakumar. The fact that party chief Mallikarjun Kharge is from Karnataka was an added advantage for the party.
Sonia Gandhi, Rahul and Priyanaka did campaign in the state, but the spotlight clearly was on the regional leaders.
Even the newspaper advertisements released by the party carried the images of the two regional leaders with greater prominence than the Gandhis - a clear break from the normal tradition of keeping the focus on central leaders - especially the Gandhis.

Promise of five guarantees
The other factor that may have worked in favour of the Congress are the five promises that the party has made to the people of Karnataka.
For the party, fulfilling the "one vote, five guarantees" campaign will be the first challenge. Rahul Gandhi in his first reaction after the landslide victory said that the new government will take this up in the first cabinet meeting.
Here are the five promises which the Congress made during Karnataka campaign:
Gruha Jyoti: 200 units of free power to all households
Gruha Lakshmi: Rs 2,000 monthly assistance to the woman head of every family
Anna Bhagya: 10 kg of rice free to every member of a BPL household
Yuva Nidhi: Rs 3,000 every month for unemployed graduate youth and Rs 1,500 for unemployed diploma holders (both in the age group of 18-25) for two years
Shakti: Free travel for women in public transport buses
Rahul's Bharat Jodo Yatra
While it will be impossible to gauge with precision the electoral advantage that Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra has provided the Congress, the fact remains that the party has managed victory in two states post his campaign.
Senior Congress leader and Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot was quick to attribute the success of Karnataka results to Rahul Gandhi's yatra. "The atmosphere which was visible in Karnataka during Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra is clearly visible in the election results of Karnataka today," Gehlot tweeted.

Rahul Gandhi had spent considerable time in Karnataka during his yatra. He entered the state on September 30 and carried out his march in the state till October 23.

For the Congress, this convincing victory will come as a huge morale booster. More so, as the party gears up for a direct contest with the BJP in the Hindi heartland of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan later this year.
Watch Rahul Gandhi vows to keep the 5 promises Congress made in election rallies