All eyes on Jharsuguda bypoll results in run-up to 2024 polls

BHUBANESWAR: All eyes in the state will be on the outcome of Jharsuguda assembly bypoll with the counting of votes set to be held on Saturday amid tight security. The focus will not only be on the winning candidate but also on the margin of victory, as it will provide valuable insights into the prevailing political landscape in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha and assembly elections, political analysts said.
"Byelection victories have largely favoured the ruling party. Therefore, while a victory for the BJD is expected, the margin of victory will also be significant," said Amarendra Das, a faculty member of economics at National Institute of Science Education and Research (NISER) and a keen observer of Odisha politics.
The result of the bitterly fought election, which turned out to be a triangular contest involving BJD, BJP and Congress, will mean different things for the three parties. The BJD, which has won six of the seven bypolls held in chief minister Naveen Patnaik's current term since 2019, is looking not only for a victory but also a landslide win to send a message that there is no alternative to Naveen in the state as the regional party gears up for the next big fight where he seeks a sixth term.
A sympathy wave for its candidate Dipali Das in the backdrop of the murder of her father and then minister Naba Kisore Das, besides Naveen's continued popularity and BJD's micro-management gives the party a distinct edge. Moreover, bypolls have largely gone in favour of BJD. Barring the exception of Dhamnagar in November last year, which BJP managed to retain, the BJD won Bijepur in 2019 (vacated by Naveen), Tirtol and Balasore in November 2020, Pipili in September 2021, Brajarajnagar in June last year and Padampur in December last year.
While a win will be seen as a game-changer for BJP, the party would also consider it as an achievement if they manage to limit the margin in the event of a defeat. A narrow margin of defeat would be seen as a potential threat to the ruling BJD in the next election. This is the first byelection since Manmohan Samal took over as the state BJP chief, succeeding Samir Mohanty, in March. The party has tried to give its best after fielding former state youth wing president Tankadhar Tripathy in a valiant effort.
The Congress is eager to get a decent vote share in order to demonstrate that it cannot be overlooked, especially after forfeiting deposits in the last two byelections in Padampur and Dhamnagar. The grand old party had managed to secure second place in the adjacent Brajararjanagar assembly bypoll last year, which had rattled the BJP. If the Congress can achieve the same feat in Jharsuguda, it would be considered a major accomplishment and its nominee Tarun Pandey will have reasons to cheer.
Chief electoral officer Nikunja Dhal on Friday said counting will start around 8 am, with postal ballots followed by votes polled in EVMs in 19 rounds. A three-tier security arrangement has been put in place to ensure a peaceful counting process.