Paetongtarn Shinawatra is the frontrunner for the post of the Thailand PM in many opinion polls. AP File Photo
Paetongtarn ‘Ung-Ing’ Shinawatra is a well-known face in Thailand. The youngest daughter of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is favoured by many to lead the country. Thailand will go to polls on 14 May to elect a new government.
Last week, introducing her newborn boy in front of the media at a Bangkok hospital, Paetongtarn announced she was ready to hit the campaign trail again. “I believe good things come along with children,” she was quoted as saying by Associated Press (AP). “I believe that children are my secret power to work, and to lead everyday life.”
Who is Paetongtarn Shinawatra, what are her chances and what happens if her party wins the majority? We explain.
A political scion
She was studying at Bangkok’s conservative Chulalongkorn University when her father was ousted from power in a military coup in 2006.
Thaksin’s sister Yingluck – Paetongtarn’s aunt – became Thailand’s first female prime minister in 2011 in a landslide victory. However, she was also disqualified by the courts and removed from power through another coup in 2014 carried on the orders of then-army commander Prayuth Chan-ocha, according to AP.
Prayuth is currently the prime minister of Thailand, seeking reelection with his United Thai Nation Party.
Both Yingluck and Thaksin have been living in exile.
Now, Paetongtarn is one of the three prime ministerial candidates of the opposition Pheu Thai party, along with tycoon Srettha Thavisin and former justice minister Chaikasem Nitisiri.
The 36-year-old does not forget to remind her supporters of the military coups that ousted her family members from power.
“You probably remember how our power was stolen by the coup,” Paetongtarn, who was then eight months pregnant, said at a campaign rally in April.
“The coup had hurt everyone. None of us want it anymore, right? None of us want any more coups, right?” she had asked, as per The Guardian.
The third child of Thaksin – a former policeman and telecoms billionaire – and his then-wife Potjaman Damapong, Paetongtarn grew up in Bangkok.
She went to the United Kingdom to get a master’s degree in international hotel management at the University of Surrey. Later, she worked for the family business.
According to The Guardian, Paetongtarn was exposed to politics when she was young and would often accompany her father when he became foreign minister.
She was also seen with Thaksin at official events when he was prime minister.
“She was very prominent and was often seen with him,” Thai political scientist Thitinan Pongsudhirak from Chulalongkorn University told CNN. “Paetongtarn has Thaksin’s political instincts and she has a lot of things going for her as his youngest daughter,” he stated.
Frontrunner in polls
Many opinion polls have given Paetongtarn an edge over her rivals to become Thailand’s youngest prime minister. Her Pheu Thai Party is also expected to perform strongly in the elections.
A pre-election opinion poll conducted by the National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA) showed she was the most popular choice for prime minister, getting “more than double the support” of her opponents – the incumbent Prayuth and Forward Party’s Pita Limjaroenrat, as per a CNN report in April.
A 3 May nationwide survey of 2,500 people conducted by NIDA found that Pita has gained a lead with 35.4 per cent votes, while 29.2 per cent preferred Paetongtarn, reported Reuters.
“Paetongtarn has attracted a great deal of popular support and media attention chiefly because she is the daughter of Thaksin… but it should also be pointed out that she has stopped talking about her dad during recent public appearances,” Termsak Chalermpalanupap, a visiting fellow and acting coordinator of the Thailand Studies Programme at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak research institute, told CNN in early April.
“Her hard work in spite of her pregnancy also draws a great deal of public admiration and sympathy,” he added. “But it is still uncertain whether the family is willing to risk her well-being for another Shinawatra prime minister.”
Pheu Thai also enjoys popularity in Thailand which has been rocked by political turmoil since the 2006 army coup.
“For many years no other political force has been able to offer an alternative to Pheu Thai, in terms of policy offerings, in terms of charisma, in being able to communicate directly with the people”, Siripan Nogsuan Sawasdee, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, told BBC.
“And because the last coup d’etat resulted in two military-backed governments which failed miserably in economic performance and in dealing with the COVID pandemic, the popularity of its main opponent Pheu Thai remains high.”
Is winning the election enough?
In Thai politics, no.
Thaksin-linked parties have won most seats in every election since 2001.
Even if Pheu Thai bags a lion’s share of seats in the House of Representatives, it will need to win enough votes in the Senate, whose 250 unelected members were appointed by the junta that seized power in 2014.
The Move Forward Party, led by businessman Pita, has been luring voters, especially the younger ones, with the promise of its bold reforms of the military and monarchy, reported AP.
Analysts predict the party can be the “game changer” in this election, noted CNN.
According to the AP report, it would be tough for Pheu Thai to win votes from the Senate, which unanimously support Prayuth in 2019.
Pheu Thai can form an alliance with Move Forward given their shared animosity towards the military rule, but the latter’s call for reform of the monarchy may drive away other parties, the report added.
Thaksin was a highly popular but divisive figure in Thailand. Another Shinawatra as the leader may also vex some people in the country, especially the conservatives.
“A lot of people love them but you have a large number of conservative people who are against Thaksin and his family,” Prajak Kongkirati, a political scientist from Bangkok’s Thammasat University, told AP. “So the fact that he put his daughter for the candidate, you know, might turn off a lot of conservative people and can stir up emotion from conservative side again.”
And then there are concerns of another military-backed coup if Prayuth loses, which is quite likely.
However, Paetongtarn has dismissed concerns of a coup.
“I’m not the one who invented the coup d’etat or anything but, actually, I have a very high hope that it’s not going to happen again and I believe it’s going to be a lot harder that the coup will happen again,” she said, as per AP.
With inputs from agencies
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