The Nifty50 has surpassed its previous day's high amid a rangebound session, but failed to sustain the same due to selling pressure in the last hour of trade on May 11, the weekly F&O expiry day, while the volatility has been inching higher day after day.
The index opened higher at 18,358 and climbed up to 18,390 intraday amid volatility after easing US inflation numbers, but lost all gains in the final hour of trade to close with 18 points loss at 18,297. It has formed a bearish candlestick pattern on the daily charts as the closing was lower than the opening levels, but made higher high higher low formation.
The Nifty50 seems to be positive in direction as long as it holds 18,200 levels, which can be immediate support, whereas 18,400-18,500 is expected to be a crucial hurdle in coming sessions, experts said.
"Technically, there have been no significant changes in the chart structure as Nifty kept hustling at the higher band throughout the weekly expiry session. However, some timidity could certainly be sensed among the bulls at the higher zone, awaiting some positive trigger to continue the upward march," Osho Krishan, Sr Analyst, Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One said.
As far as levels are concerned, he feels the 18,200 zone is likely to cushion any blip in the coming period, while the sacrosanct support lies around the 18,100-18,000 mark.
On the contrary, 18,300-18,500 is considered a daunting task for the bulls in the comparable period, said Osho, who expects any dip to augur well for the bulls.
Per the weekly Option data, the 18,300 strike has the maximum Call open interest followed by 18,400 and 18,500 strikes, with Call writing at 18,300 strike, while the maximum Put open interest was at 18,300 strike followed by 18,200 strike, with Put writing at 17,300 strike and then at 17,400 strike.
The above-mentioned data indicated that 18,300 is expected to be a crucial area for the Nifty50 in the coming sessions.
"The trend for the next two weeks for the Index is sideways with a bullish bias. Momentum indicators are also showing signs of consolidation which is a very healthy sign for an ongoing rally," Rahul Ghose, Founder & CEO at Hedged said.
He expects Nifty to consolidate between 18,180 and 18,400 before it starts its next leg on the upside.
Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty opened on a positive note at 43,535 and made a freak high of 43,774 levels, but remained quite choppy in the initial hour of the session. Later on, it remained consolidative in the narrow range of 200 points between 43,450 to 43,650 levels but managed to close in the positive territory near 43,500 levels.
The index rose 144 points to 43,475 and has formed a small-bodied candle with a long upper shadow and small lower shadow on a daily scale as the buying is visible at lower zones while selling pressure is intact at higher levels.
"It got stuck in a wider range on a daily scale from the past five sessions and momentum is missing on either side. Now it has to continue to hold above 43,333 levels to make an up move towards 43,750, then 44,000 levels, whereas on the downside support is expected at 43,000, then 42,750 levels,' Chandan Taparia, Senior Vice President | Analyst-Derivatives at Motilal Oswal Financial Services said.
India VIX, the fear index increased by 1.01 percent to 13.22 levels, from up 13.08 levels, continuing an uptrend for 50 consecutive sessions.
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