Karnataka election 2023 opinion polls: Were past predictions on point?
2 min read . Updated: 09 May 2023, 07:35 PM IST
PremiumWith less than a year left for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Karnataka Assembly polls are being viewed as a prelude of sorts.
With less than a year left for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Karnataka Assembly polls are being viewed as a prelude of sorts. And while the BJP insists that it will win a comfortable majority, at least three pre-election surveys have predicted that the Congress would return to power. But opinion polls are not always a clear indicator for election results.
The Congress could eke out a narrow victory in the upcoming Karnataka Assembly elections, emerging as the single largest party in the southern state.
According to the ABP News-CVoter opinion poll, the Congress could win 110 to 122 seats while the BJP may secure 73 to 85 seats. The JD(S) is projected to win between 21 and 29 seats. Meanwhile the India Today-CVoter has predicted a loss for the BJP, with only 74-86 seats.
In 2018, the Times Now and VotersMood Research opinion poll for example had indicated that the BJP would make major gains but still fall short of the Congress tally and the majority mark. Another poll - conducted by India Today - said that both the parties would fall short of a majority. Most predicte that there would be a hung Assembly.
Following the elections, the NDTV poll of polls had taken nine exit polls into consideration to predict that the BJP would win 97 seats while the Congress secure 90 seats and the JD(S) combine secured 31 seats. Within this, some had given the Congress the edge, while others showed the BJP leading. Only three agencies predicted a clear majority for any party. Again, the data suggested that Karnataka might well be staring at a hung Assembly.
The 2018 elections ultimately saw the BJP secure 104 seats (36.2% vote share) while the Congress won 78 (38% vote share) and the JD(S) secured 37 seats (18.3% vote share). While the polls did indeed result in a hung Assembly, the BJP went on to form the government as the single largest party. Chief minister Yeddyurappa however resigned 10 minutes before the trust vote and the Congress-JD(S) coalition formed the government.