Famed investor Stan Druckenmiller sees hard landing coming (update)
Kevin Dietsch
Update 7:30pm: Adds Druckenmiller comments on likely more bankruptcies coming.
Hedge fund investor Stan Druckenmiller said he sees the potential for a 2008-like recession or worse, though he's not predicting one. He sees a hard landing coming.
A hard landing for Druckenmiller likely includes a 20%+ decline in corporate profits, unemployment going to above 5% and increases in bankruptcies, he explained at the 2023 Sohn Investment Conference for charity on Tuesday.
“I am not predicting something worse than 2008,” Druckenmiller, who runs his own Duquesne Family Office, said at the conference. “It’s naïve not to be open-minded to something really, really bad happening. Again it is not my forecast, but as a risk manager it has be part of my matrix and my equation thinking about it."
"I'm not positive on the stock market," Druckenmiller said. "If I liked the stock market, I would be exposed to it, and I'm not exposed to it."
Druckenmiller said he's concerned about the fiscal situation in the U.S.
"It's a scary cocktail that we're being presented with," Druckenmiller said.
Druckenmiller said expects to see more situations like Bed Bath & Beyond (OTCPK:BBBYQ) in the future.
"There's stuff under the hood that's starting to emerge," Druckenmiller continued. "Obviously the regional banks. Recently we had Bed Bath & Beyond, but I would assume there's a lot more bodies coming."
Druckemiller said he's positive on the potential impact of artificial intelligence.
"I think the AI thing is very vey real and could be every bit impactful as the Internet, literally," he said. "It could be a beautiful opportunity in a hard landing, just like 2001 and 2002 were a beautiful opportunity when the tech bubble burst going forward for companies who would benefit from the Internet."
Druckenmiller said his firm has only been able to participate in AI through owning Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA).
"It's not even clear to me if we had a really bad recession that Nvidia would even go down," Druckenmiller said. "It kind of a stupid statement given the multiple on it, but if they bought staples historically in recessions, why wouldn't they buy a company that's obviously going to grow very rapidly."
Druckemiller said he also owns gold and silver right now.
He said historically gold and silver haven't done well in hard landings, but he's betting against history for now, though he warns "don't go out and by gold, I could change my mind in a week or two."