TAMPA, Florida — It was billed as the first high-tech clash between major powers, a conflict that would offer an up-close look at the evolution of combat in the 21st century.
But in many ways, some analysts say, the Russia-Ukraine war is more like World War I with drones and iPhones, with far more in common with age-old approaches to tactics and strategy than many had predicted.
There’s little doubt that modern technologies have played a role, with unmanned aircraft, communication equipment, next-generation missile-defense systems and social media playing significant parts in the war so far. At its core, though, the fighting — now well into its 15th month — has looked familiar, complete with artillery, ground maneuvers, tank battles and even the kinds of deep defensive trenches reminiscent of the Great War more than a century ago.
There are sure to be lessons that the U.S. and other modern militaries can draw from the conflict. But the expectation that war itself would forever change modern fighting hasn’t been borne out.
“This war looks more like World War I to me than a futuristic vision of combat — World War I with precision artillery and drones and smartphones and satellites and anti-tank missiles, but still dominated by artillery barrages and defensive trenches,” said Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow and director of research in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, who studies military policy and modern warfare extensively.
‘World War I style fighting’
The impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war on military planning, weapons development and wartime strategy for the U.S. are key topics here this week at the Special Operations Forces conference, organized by U.S. Special Operations Command and the Global Special Operations Forces Foundation. The event is one of the world’s largest gatherings of special operations professionals and defense industry leaders, and it serves as a major showcase of cutting-edge military technologies.
Such technologies will surely play a role in future fights. A hypothetical clash with China in the Pacific, for example, will likely be fought more at sea and in coastal regions and could rely heavily on unmanned craft in the sky and at sea, cyber capabilities, electronic warfare, and other groundbreaking tools. Weather has played a far bigger role in the arc of the war than cyberattacks or disinformation campaigns
But in Kyiv over the past 15 months, pleas for military aid have mostly centered on the classic meat and potatoes of the military-industrial world: Missile batteries, tanks and anti-tank weapons, armored ground vehicles and fighter jets. All of that equipment proved vital in Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive last fall that helped push the Russians out of Kharkiv, Kherson and other key cities.
In the months since, the front lines have mostly frozen, with the exception of fierce fighting in Bakhmut, where Ukrainian soldiers are holding on in the western edges of the city amid a ruthless attack by the Russian side. Beyond Bakhmut, Ukraine’s focus has been on its upcoming second counteroffensive, an even more ambitious assault aimed at pushing Russia out of the disputed Donbas region and perhaps even out of Crimea, a portion of Ukraine that Moscow and its proxy forces have held since 2014.
Ahead of that counteroffensive, Russian forces have fortified their defenses, primarily by moving a lot of dirt around. British intelligence officials earlier this month described the Russian positions as “some of the most extensive systems of military defensive works seen anywhere in the world for many decades” — a throwback to the kinds of trenches that created the infamous “No Man’s Land” between the two sides during the darkest days of World War I.
Top U.S. military commanders also see those similarities, particularly in how the war has played out over the past six months.
In a recent interview with Foreign Affairs magazine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark A. Milley said that “things set in for the winter” after Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive operations last fall.
“And for the winter, even though there’s been a lot of fighting, almost World War I style fighting, there’s been very little change of hands of significant pieces of territory with the possible exception of Bakhmut,” Gen. Milley said.
“So you’ve got essentially a situation along a front line that extends, I don’t know, probably Washington, D.C., to Atlanta, something like that. It’s quite a ways. And that front line hasn’t changed hands. It’s essentially been stalemated,” he said.
A look back — and to the future
Even with its World War I-esque elements, the Russia-Ukraine war comes at a unique moment in history. Artillery and looming trench warfare could define the next phase of the conflict, but more broadly, military leaders say the world is watching as warfare undergoes arguably the next major historical transformation in how nations fight, in the same way the longbow, the inventions of gunpowder and the repeatable rifle, and the introduction of armored ground vehicles and ships changed how wars were conducted over the centuries.
In his interview with Foreign Affairs, Gen. Milley said that modern technology has unleashed unseen innovation in the defense industrial space.
“So I would argue that in today’s world, we are undergoing the most fundamental change in the character of war ever in recorded history, and it’s primarily being driven by technology,” he said, going on to cite sensors, long-range precision fires, hypersonic weapons, communications, robotics, unmanned systems, and a host of other examples.
“And there’s zero doubt in my mind that that’s going to have a huge impact on the conduct of military operations in the future,” he said. “And just like in the past, the country that optimizes those technologies for the conduct of warfare — that country is going to have a decisive advantage, at least at the beginning and the opening shots of the next war. I want that country to be the United States.”
There’s no doubt some of those technologies have been used in Ukraine, some to great effect. Ukraine employed drones and long-range artillery early in the war to stop a major Russian advance toward Kyiv. More recently, Ukrainian officials suggested their country was responsible for an apparent drone attack on an oil depot in Russia-controlled Crimea — though they denied being behind a more recent attempted drone strike on the Kremlin, despite Moscow’s assertion of Ukraine’s involvement.
Ukraine also has made extensive use of social media, showing photos and video of destroyed Russian equipment throughout the war. Conversely, Moscow has used extensive online censorship to restrict information about the war for its citizens at home.
But none of that offers a true, unbiased assessment of the war, analysts say. Mark A. Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that for all the talk of modern technologies in the early days of the war, arguably Ukraine’s most pressing need has been more artillery shells, highlighting the war’s old-school nature.
“We will not have a clear idea about the lessons learned until the war is over and we can get better information,” he told The Washington Times. “As it is, both the Russians and Ukrainians tightly control information as part of their competitive strategy, so it’s hard to say what systems have been effective and ineffective. Online videos can be impressive, but they are anecdotes.”
“That said, the one clear lesson learned is about the need to surge production of munitions during a conflict. We see that with artillery ammunition particularly but also with other kinds of ground attack missions,” he said. “Beyond that, it’s hard to say. … Tanks were thought to be overly vulnerable at the beginning of the campaign, but now seem to be important. That needs more analysis. Drones are clearly important, but whether they are ‘game-changing’ also needs more analysis.”
