Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
UPDATED: May 6, 2023
Weekly Commentary:
The first rankings for the hilarious women of supporting actress (limited) have been released with Niecy Nash-Betts sitting in the top spot for Netflix’s “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story,” along with Claire Danes close behind for FX’s “Fleishman is in Trouble.”
We said farewell to ABC’s “The Goldbergs” this week, and hoping the TV Academy will finally remember that Wendi McLendon-Covey’s memorable Beverly has never been nominated, and it’s time she is.
Category switches and scoops included Guy Fieri’s “Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives” moving back to structured reality and the TV Academy denying Apple’s “Schmigadoon!” switch to scripted variety from comedy series.
Down below, you can see the first projections for outstanding reality competition, structured, host, short form (comedy, drama, variety)
The writers’ strike will obviously have great implications for the industry and the Emmy season. NBC’s “Saturday Night Live” was delayed indefinitely when Kieran Culkin and Jennifer Coolidge were set to take the stage.
Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
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Drama Series
Image Credit: HBO “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
“The Crown” (Netflix)
“House of the Dragon” (HBO)
“The Last of Us” (HBO)
“The Old Man” (FX)
“Succession” (HBO) ***
“The White Lotus” (HBO)
“Yellowjackets” (Showtime) -
Comedy Series
Image Credit: Phillip Caruso/Peacock “Abbott Elementary” (ABC) ***
“Barry” (HBO)
“The Bear” (FX)
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Prime Video)
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
“Poker Face” (Peacock)
“Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
“Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+) -
Limited or Anthology Series
“Beef” (Netflix)
“Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
“Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
“Daisy Jones & the Six” (Prime Video)
“Fleishman is in Trouble” (FX)
“Love & Death” (HBO) *** -
TV Movie
Image Credit: ©Hulu/Courtesy Everett Collection “Dolly Parton’s Mountain Magic Christmas” (NBC)
“Fire Island” (Hulu)
“Prey” (Hulu)
“Reality” (HBO)
“Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” (The Roku Channel) *** -
Lead Actor (Drama)
Image Credit: Des Willie / Lucasfilm Ltd. Jeff Bridges
“The Old Man” (FX)
Brian Cox
“Succession” (HBO)
Kieran Culkin ***
“Succession” (HBO)
Diego Luna
“Andor” (Disney+)
Pedro Pascal
“The Last of Us” (HBO)
Jeremy Strong
“Succession” (HBO) -
Lead Actor (Comedy)
Image Credit: HBO Bill Hader
“Barry” (HBO)
Steve Martin
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Martin Short
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Jason Segel
“Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
Jason Sudeikis
“Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
Jeremy Allen White ***
“The Bear” (FX) -
Lead Actor (Limited/TV Movie)
Image Credit: FX Steve Carell
“The Patient” (Hulu)
Taron Egerton
“Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
Evan Peters ***
“Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
Daniel Radcliffe
“Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” (The Roku Channel)
Michael Shannon
“George & Tammy” (Showtime)
Steven Yeun
“Beef” (Netflix) -
Guest Actor (Drama)
Image Credit: Greg Lewis/AMC/Sony Pictures Television Murray Bartlett
“The Last of Us” (HBO)
Bryan Cranston
“Better Call Saul” (AMC)
James Cromwell
“Succession” (HBO)
Arian Moayed
“Succession” (HBO)
Nick Offerman ***
“The Last of Us” (HBO)
Andy Serkis
“Andor” (Disney+)Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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Guest Actor (Comedy)
Image Credit: Courtesy of NBC Jon Bernthal
“The Bear” (FX)
Adrien Brody
“Poker Face” (Peacock)
Nathan Lane
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Steve Martin & Martin Short
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Leslie Odom Jr.
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Pedro Pascal ***
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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Lead Actress (Drama)
Image Credit: HBO Sharon Horgan
“Bad Sisters” (Apple TV+)
Melanie Lynskey
“Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
Helen Mirren
“1923” (Paramount+)
Bella Ramsey
“The Last of Us” (HBO)
Sarah Snook ***
“Succession” (HBO)
Imelda Staunton
“The Crown” (Netflix) -
Lead Actress (Comedy)
Image Credit: Hulu Rachel Brosnahan
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Prime Video)
Quinta Brunson ***
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Bridget Everett
“Somebody Somewhere” (HBO)
Elle Fanning
“The Great” (Hulu)
Natasha Lyonne
“Poker Face” (Peacock)
Jenna Ortega
“Wednesday” (Netflix) -
Lead Actress (Limited/TV Movie)
Image Credit: HULU Jessica Chastain
“George & Tammy” (Showtime)
Kathryn Hahn
“Tiny Beautiful Things” (Hulu)
Riley Keough
“Daisy Jones & the Six” (Prime Video)
Elizabeth Olsen ***
“Love & Death” (HBO)
Rachel Weisz
“Dead Ringers” (Prime Video)
Ali Wong
“Beef” (Netflix) -
Guest Actress (Drama)
Image Credit: Liane Hentscher Cherry Jones
“Succession” (HBO)
Melanie Lynskey
“The Last of Us” (HBO)
Ella Purnell
“Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
Fiona Shaw
“Andor” (Disney+)
Anna Torv
“The Last of Us” (HBO)
Harriet Walter ***
“Succession” (HBO)Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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Guest Actress (Comedy)
Image Credit: Peacock Quinta Brunson
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Taraji P. Henson ***
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Cherry Jones
“Poker Face” (Peacock)
Judith Light
“Poker Face” (Peacock)
Shirley MacLaine
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Sarah Niles
“Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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Supporting Actor (Drama)
Image Credit: Graeme Hunter F. Murray Abraham
“The White Lotus” (HBO)
John Lithgow
“The Old Man” (FX)
Matthew Macfadyen
“Succession” (HBO)
Jonathan Pryce
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Alan Ruck
“Succession” (HBO)
Alexander Skarsgård ***
“Succession” (HBO)
Stellan Skarsgård
“Andor” (Disney+)
Matt Smith
“House of the Dragon” (HBO) -
Supporting Actor (Comedy)
Image Credit: Apple TV+ Anthony Carrigan
“Barry” (HBO)
Phil Dunster
“Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
Harrison Ford ***
“Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
Brett Goldstein
“Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
Ebon Moss-Bachrach
“The Bear” (FX)
Tony Shalhoub
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Prime Video)
Tyler James Williams
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Henry Winkler
“Barry” (HBO) -
Supporting Actor (Limited/TV Movie)
Image Credit: HBO Murray Bartlett
“Welcome to Chippendales” (Hulu)
Domhnall Gleeson
“The Patient” (Hulu)
Paul Walter Hauser ***
“Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
Richard Jenkins
“Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
Ray Liotta
“Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
Jesse Plemons
“Love & Death” (HBO) -
Supporting Actress (Drama)
Image Credit: HBO Olivia Cooke
“House of the Dragon” (HBO)
Jennifer Coolidge
“The White Lotus” (HBO)
Elizabeth Debicki
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Meghann Fahy
“The White Lotus” (HBO)
Lesley Manville
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Aubrey Plaza
“The White Lotus” (HBO)
Christina Ricci
“Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
J. Smith-Cameron ***
“Succession” (HBO) -
Supporting Actress (Comedy)
Image Credit: ABC Alex Borstein
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Prime Video)
Ayo Edebiri
“The Bear” (FX)
Sarah Goldberg
“Barry” (HBO)
Janelle James ***
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Sheryl Lee Ralph
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Hannah Waddingham
“Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
Lisa Ann Walter
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Jessica Williams
“Shrinking” (Apple TV+) -
Supporting Actress (Limited/TV Movie)
Image Credit: FX Olivia Colman
“Great Expectations” (Hulu)
Claire Danes
“Fleishman is in Trouble” (FX)
Cherry Jones
“Five Days at Memorial” (Apple TV+)
Niecy Nash-Betts ***
“Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
Lily Rabe
“Love & Death” (HBO)
Merritt Wever
“Tiny Beautiful Things” (Hulu) -
Animated Program
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix “Big Mouth” (Netflix)
“Bob’s Burgers” (Fox)
“Entergalactic” (Netflix)
“The Simpsons” (Fox)
“South Park” (Comedy Central)Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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Talk Series