Over the course of 2022-23, India’s exports appeared to show a reasonable increase of around 6 per cent even at a time of concern about growth momentum globally. The real driver of the growth numbers was, in fact, petroleum exports. When oil was taken out of the equation, non-oil exports in fact went down slightly as compared to the previous year. According to the Union government, petroleum exports were closing in on $100 billion in value, with almost $95 billion exported during 2022-23, a 40 per cent growth rate over the previous year. As a comparison, finished steel exports saw a decline of over 50 per cent in 2022-23.
The drivers of this outstanding performance cannot, however, be assumed to be structural shifts. If anything, this might be an artefact of the special circumstances caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. Over the course of the months that followed, the price of fossil fuels increased, and some Russian exports had to be
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