Threats from China and the potential of a war over Taiwan pose real dangers for the U.S. in the coming years, two top intelligence officials said during an annual briefing to Congress Thursday.
Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told the Senate Armed Services Committee she worried a miscalculation or escalation of a minor confrontation could trigger a major U.S.-China war — based on Chinese leaders’ pessimism about the future of relations with the U.S. and Beijing’s policy of cutting off communications in a crisis.
Army Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told lawmakers that at least four dates beginning in 2025 have been put forth for when Chinese President Xi Jinping may order military action against Taiwan, which Beijing considers part of its sovereign territory and has vowed one day to reclaim.
The threats from China, including space warfare attacks on satellites and cyberattacks on critical U.S. infrastructure in a future conflict, dominated the annual survey of global threats that intelligence officials give to Congress. The Senate panel was also holding a closed-door briefing with the witnesses later Thursday.
Other threats laid out by the two intelligence officials included the growing risk of a direct conflict with Russia over the Ukraine war; North Korea’s growing nuclear arms and missile programs; and Iran’s increasing potential to build nuclear arms.
On China, Mr. Haines said American intelligence analysts assess that Mr. Xi and the ruling Chinese Communist Party will continue efforts over the next year to make China the preeminent player in East Asia and a major global power.
“What is perhaps most concerning is that the CCP is increasingly convinced that it can only fulfill Xi’s vision at the expense of U.S power and influence, and through tools of coercion using demonstrations of strength, as well as economic and political coercion to compel governments to acquiesce to its preferences, including its land, sea, and air claims in the region and its assertions of sovereignty over Taiwan,” Ms. Haines said.
Tensions between the United States and China remain high following direct accusations by Mr. Xi in March that the United States is seeking to suppress Chinese development.
Ms. Haines said the remarks were the most public and direct criticism of the United States by the Chinese leader observed by U.S. intelligence and reflect growing pessimism in Beijing about the prospect of genuine cooperation with Washington.
Ms. Haines acknowledged she was “absolutely worried” about an “unnecessary war” between the United States and China caused by miscommunications or an escalation of a minor incident into a major confrontation.
“We need to be as vigilant as we possibly can in order to help our policymakers, our decision-makers, all of you have a better understanding of what’s actually happening so that there isn’t that kind of unintended escalation or miscalculation,” she said.
One problem is that China’s leaders tend to “clamp down” on communications with the United States in a crisis, as took place in February following the U.S. downing of a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon that flew over the continental U.S., she said.
Gen. Berrier said Mr. Xi has increased his aggressive rhetoric regarding efforts to take over Taiwan.
U.S. military commanders have said a buildup of forces and provocative exercises around Taiwan shows Beijing is preparing for military action against the democratic-ruled island.
Adm. John Aquilino, commander of the Indo-Pacific command, testified to Congress last week that Mr. Xi ordered his military to be ready for an attack by 2027, while Air Force Gen. Mike Minihan, commander of the Air Mobility, stated in a memorandum disclosed in January that “my gut tells me we will fight in 2025.”
Gen. Berrier said there are varying predictions for potential military action, from 2025 to as late as 2049.
“I think the bottom line is [Mr. Xi] has told his military to be ready — for what, we are not sure; when, we are not sure,” he said, noting that DIA is closely watching for signs of Chinese military preparations.
Ms. Haines said U.S. intelligence agencies assessed that Mr. Xi would prefer to take control of Taiwan without military action.
“But the reality is he has directed his military to provide him with the military option to essentially take it without concern of our intervention,” she said.
President Biden has said several times that the United States would intervene militarily if China attacks, and the State Department has said that position is not a new U.S. policy.
Both intelligence officials said a U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan would have a harsh impact on the U.S. and global economy, including the disruption of the supply of advanced microchips, 90% of which are produced in Taiwan.
The costs of a Taiwan war could range between $600 billion and $1 trillion, Ms. Haines said.
