By meeting Telugu superstar and Jana Sena leader Pawan Kalyan for the third time in less than a year, former Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu has sent out a clear message that his latest alliance building efforts are showing progress, with or without the Bharatiya Janata Party. Kalyan is also no longer clinging to the BJP, as has become apparent.
However, the prospects of a BJP-TDP-Jana Sena alliance as part of the actor’s clarion call for opposition unity against the ruling YSR Congress headed by YS Jagan Mohan Reddy is still up in the air. Though Naidu keeps sending feelers and Kalyan insists on a “roadmap” to take on Jagan Reddy, the BJP top brass are holding their cards close to the chest.
After his flop show in the 2019 election, Kalyan had re-embraced the BJP while courting TDP. Naidu had stitched up a winning combination with BJP and Jana Sena against the YSR Congress in 2014. But he broke the BJP-led NDA in 2018 on the question of special status for his home state. He was hoping for a comeback to power in the next year’s election by projecting PM Narendra Modi as the villain of the piece.
But the massive defeat in 2019 left Naidu isolated, waging a lonely battle against his young and aggressive rival Jagan Reddy. After realising the need for strong allies, he began to woo the old partners – Jana Sena and BJP – back.
TDP Needs Allies
Four years later, Naidu is still struggling to end his isolation and prevent a split in the opposition vote that will work to his advantage. In addition, Naidu also intends to see Jagan fall out of favour with the NDA, belatedly recognising the wisdom in not antagonising the BJP leadership. It’s a win-win deal, the kind that brings partners together in any business, more so in politics.
In Andhra, BJP with a poor vote share of 0.96 percent is not a force to reckon with. Hence, it prefers to piggy-back on either TDP or YSRC Congress. PM Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah apparently prefer Jagan after weighing Naidu through the prism of his past antics and BJP’s own modest prospects in the state. For Naidu the trust deficit that he has incurred by ditching NDA multiple times in the past, including in joining hands with the Congress, is proving to be very costly.
Jagan, meanwhile, is left with no alternative but the BJP after a stint in jail courtesy the Congress in money laundering cases. After considering all its options, the BJP is unlikely to want to see Naidu in the CM’s saddle by taking advantage of opposition unity.
The Pawan Kalyan Factor
Like his megastar brother Chiranjeevi, Pawan Kalyan too is unpredictable in his political moorings. He became a kingmaker-of-sorts by working for the victories of Naidu in the state and Modi at the Centre in 2014.
By the next election in 2019, he fell out with both the BJP and the TDP and fought that election in alliance with the Left parties and the BSP. After failing to ensure even his own victory in either of the two assembly segments he contested from, the actor promptly returned to the BJP fold. However, his Jana Sena had emerged as the third largest party in that election with around 6 percent vote share.
Naidu needs Kalyan’s support for this 6 percent voteshare that could make a difference in bridging the gap with Jagan in his now-or-never poll battle in 2024, with age no longer on the veteran’s side. In 2019, Jagan’s party swept the polls with a massive vote share of 49.95 percent even as TDP and Jana Sena settled for 39.26 percent and 5.54 percent. Had Naidu managed to keep Pawan on his side in that election, his party’s strength would theoretically have soared to 45 percent or so, and could have helped avoid the ignominious defeat he ended up suffering when YSRCP won 151 out of the state’s 175 seats.
Jagan’s Populism or Naidu’s 90’s Reforms?
Devoid of any magical poll plank like his father-in-law NT Rama Rao’s subsidised rice and Janatha clothes schemes for the poor in the early 1980s and his then rival and Jagan’s father YS Rajasekhar Reddy’s free power promise for agriculture in 2004, Naidu hopes to find a silver lining only through rising anti-incumbency against Jagan’s rule.
The state finances under Jagan Reddy’s rule have been in shambles, thanks to indiscriminate freebies. The state is desperately seeking a messiah, just as it had once looked to Naidu in the mid-1990s, to steer it out of the quagmire of populism.
Naidu had then earned encomiums from industry captains across the world as a bold leader redefining politics driven by populism. But his reforms cost him heavily in 2004 when he was trounced by YS Rajasekhara Reddy with his magical promise of free power for agriculture.
Can he demonstrate such reformist prowess yet again and challenge Jagan, who is riding solely on the back of populism?
Gali Nagaraja is a senior journalist, formerly associated with The Hindu, The Times of India, and Hindustan Times for over three decades. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.