Some stocks are best avoided. It hits us in the gut when we see fellow investors suffer a loss. Imagine if you held Curro Holdings Limited (JSE:COH) for half a decade as the share price tanked 74%. And we doubt long term believers are the only worried holders, since the stock price has declined 23% over the last twelve months. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 11% in the last three months.

It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.

Check out our latest analysis for Curro Holdings

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Looking back five years, both Curro Holdings' share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 5.2% per year. Readers should note that the share price has fallen faster than the EPS, at a rate of 24% per year, over the period. This implies that the market is more cautious about the business these days.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Curro Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 1.0% in the last year, Curro Holdings shareholders lost 22% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. However, the loss over the last year isn't as bad as the 12% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last half decade. We'd need to see some sustained improvements in the key metrics before we could muster much enthusiasm. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Curro Holdings better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Curro Holdings you should be aware of, and 1 of them shouldn't be ignored.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on South African exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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