Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is set to report first quarter earnings on tomorrow, April 25, after market close.

Analysts are keeping a close eye on the impact of commodity inflation on Chipotle and both the brick and mortar and digital sales growth. Also: the growth of new locations with a goal of 7,000 in total in North America.

Here's what the Street expects from the company, according to data from Bloomberg:

• Revenue: $2.34 billion, up 15.7%

• Adjusted earnings per share: $8.92, up 57%

• Same-store sales: +8.51%

Wedbush's Nick Setyan, who has an Outperform rating on Chipotle shares, said the fast casual chain is "well positioned to regain its relative value advantage by holding menu pricing below peers in 2023, which could drive accelerating transaction growth."

In August of 2022, Chipotle raised menu prices 4%—the third increase in 15 months. It increased pricing in certain locations in October.

William Blair analyst Sharon Zackfia said she expects a 7% ticket gain in the quarter. But, she added, that was partially offset by, among other things, fewer sides or beverages added by customers to orders.

Stifel's Chris O'Cull, who has a Buy rating on shares of Chipotle, expects food costs to be driven higher by queso, salsa, spices, and oil, but sees improvement ahead.

Except for one key item.

"Given the pullback in key commodity spot prices, we would not be surprised if the company had a more favorable cost of sales outlook for the next 3-6 months, though beef (~20% of their basket) could be an emerging point of pressure," he said in a note to clients on April 20.

O'Cull said he is "most bullish on CMG," even more than rivals like McDonald's (MCD), which will also report earnings this week.

Traffic boosters? One is the viral TikTok fajita quesadilla, which was added as a digital-only, limited time offering, according to Wedbush's Setyan. He also expects that the launch of the chicken al pastor on March 14 boosted traffic in Q1 too.

As far as store openings, Chipotle plans to have 7,000 total locations in North America. In 2022, the total restaurant count at year-end was nearly 3,200. In a proxy filing from April 10, the company said it is planning for 420 new restaurants in the next 12-18 month with 90% of them including a drive-thru, which it calls a Chipotlane.

Bank of America analyst Sara Senatore, in a note to clients on April 21, said : "At the current unit growth rate, we think Chipotle should be able to reach its targeted 7,000 domestic store count in roughly 10 years."

Year-to-date, shares are up nearly 30%. Analyst ratings: 23 "buys," 11 "holds" and no "sells."

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Brooke DiPalma is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter at @BrookeDiPalma or email her at bdipalma@yahoofinance.com.

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