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ESPN Fantasy

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

What you need to know for Sunday's MLB Games

By Todd Zola

Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
14.6	Zack Wheeler	R	COL	98.4%	-320	9	69%	6.1	2.2	6.7
14.3	Corbin Burnes	R	BOS	99.8%	-190	8.5	61%	6.0	2.1	6.8
13.5	Jacob deGrom	R	OAK	99.6%	-365	7	63%	5.2	2.1	7.1
13.1	Cristian Javier	R	@ATL	97.1%	115	8	53%	5.6	2.1	6.7
12.8	Yu Darvish	R	@ARI	98.5%	-145	9	64%	6.0	2.5	6.3
11.6	Kevin Gausman	R	@NYY	99.2%	-135	8.5	55%	5.6	2.5	6.5
11.3	Clayton Kershaw	L	@CHC	96.5%	-140	7.5	49%	5.3	2.2	5.8
10.9	Lucas Giolito	R	@TB	87.3%	130	7.5	49%	5.6	2.5	6.2
10.8	Max Fried	L	HOU	97.5%	-135	8	47%	5.7	2.4	5.2
10.5	Reid Detmers	L	KC	46.9%	-220	9.5	60%	5.4	2.3	5.3
10.3	Zach Eflin	R	CWS	26.9%	-155	7.5	51%	5.5	2.4	5.4
9.7	Hunter Greene	R	@PIT	86.3%	-110	8.5	53%	5.1	2.5	6.1
9.7	Marcus Stroman	R	LAD	89.4%	118	7.5	51%	5.4	2.4	5.2
9.6	Jack Flaherty	R	@SEA	39.3%	-110	8.5	50%	5.0	2.1	5.2
9.5	Tylor Megill	R	@SF	26.1%	-120	9	51%	5.2	2.3	5.2
8.8	Jesus Luzardo	L	@CLE	87.3%	-105	7.5	48%	5.2	2.7	5.8
8.7	Bailey Ober	R	WSH	4.3%	-278	8.5	58%	4.8	2.4	4.6
8.7		R	DET	26.0%	-178	8	52%	5.3	2.8	5.3
8.4	Ross Stripling	R	NYM	8.2%	100	9	49%	4.8	2.0	4.2
8.1		L	@BAL	17.7%	150	8	48%	5.2	2.9	5.4
7.9	Jordan Lyles	R	@LAA	3.4%	180	9.5	40%	5.7	3.2	5.2
7.8	Chris Flexen	R	STL	1.3%	-110	8.5	50%	5.3	2.6	4.4
6.9	Logan Allen	L	MIA	3.0%	-115	7.5	52%	4.9	2.9	4.8
6.9	Drey Jameson	R	SD	11.9%	122	9	36%	4.7	2.4	4.7
6.6	Vince Velasquez	R	CIN	5.0%	-110	8.5	47%	4.6	2.5	4.3
6.4	Brayan Bello	R	@MIL	4.8%	158	8.5	39%	4.8	2.8	4.9
6.0	Clarke Schmidt	R	TOR	2.7%	115	8.5	45%	4.3	2.4	4.1
5.4	Patrick Corbin	L	@MIN	1.5%	222	8.5	42%	5.4	3.5	4.6
4.9	Kyle Muller	L	@TEX	1.4%	285	7	37%	4.7	3.1	4.4
4.9	Jose Urena	R	@PHI	0.2%	250	9	31%	5.0	3.1	3.9

Bullpen usage for Sunday

Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Sunday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Sunday

Prop of the day

Pittsburgh Pirates Vince Velasquez 15.5 pitching outs (-110/-125)

THE BAT sees Velasquez putting up 17.6 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 64.5% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $25.53.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Cincinnati Reds projected offense profiles as the fourth worst of all teams on the slate.
PNC Park grades out as the No. 25 venue in MLB for home runs, via THE BAT projection system.
Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather report calls for the fourth-coldest temperature on the slate at 49°.
Velasquez will have the handedness advantage over six opposing bats in this matchup.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Cincinnati Reds have been the ninth-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to THE BAT X, and are likely to perform better going forward.
The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11-mph in this game, the third-strongest of the day for hitters.