For Food Price Inflation Clues, Watch India

India’s monsoons are an essential economic indicator for a country that relies on rainfall to feed 1.4 billion people. A poor season can topple governments and threaten global food security—especially when export restrictions on food have become sticky despite easing food prices.

U.S. and Australian forecasts now point to an increased probability of an El Niño episode in 2023. El Niño is a periodic weather event that drives monsoon clouds away from India—and has historically hurt food production. A subpar monsoon is an underappreciated threat to global food security and inflation. That is particularly true with India’s own general elections looming, which could lead to higher political pressure to restrict grain exports.