Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform Michael McGrath and Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe with details of Budget 2022 at Government Buildings. (Photo: Julien Behal)
Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform Michael McGrath and Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe with details of Budget 2022 at Government Buildings. (Photo: Julien Behal)
The Government is expected to run double-digit surplus this year and next on top of a 2022 windfall of just over €8bn.
Figures due to be published later this afternoon are expected to forecast a surplus of €10bn this year and €16.2bn in 2024.
The figures come as part of the annual stability programme update, published each spring as part of an EU economic surveillance process, and were first reported by RTE News.
Earlier today the Central Statistics Office (CSO) announced that the budget surplus was in excess of €8bn last year, around €3bn ahead of previous estimates, largely due to a technical EU accounting change.
The Government was advised to record the cost of the €2.7bn MICA defective concrete blocks redress scheme when claims are made by homeowners in future, instead of up front in last year’s budget.
Earlier this year, the Government had estimated a surplus of around €5bn, which was well ahead of its budget day estimate of around €1bn.
Updated CSO figures show a surplus of €8.03bn last year, worth 1.6pc of gross domestic product (GDP).
The CSO said it had been advised to record the cost of the MICA redress scheme “at the time of approvals” for claims, with the costs set to “be fully aligned when the annual national accounts are published” - which is likely to be spread over several years.
A defective concrete products levy was announced in Budget 2023 to help pay for the scheme. It will apply from September this year.
The CSO data shows bumper tax revenues and lower spending contributed to the large surplus last year.
In 2022, revenues were up 16.8pc on the previous year, to €16.6bn.
Spending rose by just 1.7pc to €1.8bn, with budget balance changing from a deficit in 2020 and 2021 to a large surplus.
The general government debt ratio decreased to 44.7pc of GDP at end of 2022.
Gross debt fell by €11.3bn during 2022 to €224.8bn by the end of the year.
This compared with the 2021 figure of €236.1bn, which was 55.4pc of GDP.
The government prefers to measure debt against modified gross national income, which strips out volatile multinational transactions, and means debt levels are closer to 80pc. The GDP measure allows for comparison with other EU countries and internationally.
The IMF predicts multi-billion euro surpluses out to 2028.