International

Are the days of US "economic terror" going over?

By Fumiko Yamada

The news of former US President Donald Trump's surrender and arrest in court, the use of the Chinese yuan currency by boycotting the dollar of some countries around the world including China and Russia, and French President Emmanuel Macron's visit to China to request China's influence in ending the war in Ukraine, happened at a time when the whole world was busy with the news.

It can be said that there is another important event that has been covered up under these developments. Last week, a reconciliation meeting was held between the foreign ministers of Iran and Saudi Arabia in the Chinese capital, Beijing. In the meeting, both countries decided to re-establish diplomatic relations and one country to open an embassy in the other country within two months. Not only that, the two countries have decided to protect state sovereignty and not interfere in each other's internal affairs. Both countries also agreed to implement the security agreement signed in 2001. It goes without saying that the development of these two countries' relations will play an important role in establishing peace in the Middle East. It should be noted that the Sunni-dominant Saudi Arabia and the Shia-dominant Iran are two influential countries in the Middle East. The mutual conflict in the political and religious influence of these two countries has not only caused turmoil in the Persian Gulf region, it has spread throughout the Middle East. The Yemen issue is one of them. While the Saudi-led Arab coalition is participating in military operations on behalf of the Yemeni government, Iran is supporting the rebel Houthis by arming and training them. The recent agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia has started to play an important role in solving the Yemen problem. It is known that a delegation from Saudi Arabia and Oman is going to Sana'a, the capital of Yemen next week. Their visit is to discuss the ceasefire with Iran-backed Houthi government officials. This is expected to end the eight-year war.

China's efforts and mediation made it possible to restore the relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia. It seems that China has emerged as a new power in world politics by making a compromise between these two important countries of the Middle East, leaving the United States in the dark. This happened at a time when the whole of Europe and America cannot find a solution to the war in Ukraine, on their behalf, French President Macron rushed to Beijing with a request to play a role in ending the war. During the visit, Macron requested Chinese President Xi Jinping and said, "Russia's attack on Ukraine is destroying the stability of the world. We can count on you to get Russia out of the war and bring everyone to the negotiating table.”

A realignment of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia will undoubtedly undermine US influence in the Middle East. It is heard that Saudi Arabia has already started negotiations - from now on, instead of petrodollars, it will export oil in exchange for the Chinese currency Yuan. On the other hand, it is heard that the ASEAN countries will use their own currency in their commercial transactions. If so, experts say the dollar's dominance as the global reserve currency will end. It does not end here. It is heard that Iran and Saudi Arabia will join the economic alliance that Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa have formed called 'BRICS'. If so, then almost all the major oil producing countries of the world will join the alliance. If these countries abandon the dollar and start trading in exchange for their own currencies, the US dollar will become more cornered. These recent polarizations, if successfully established, will end the United States' hegemony in world politics.

Both the Trump and Biden administrations can be blamed for undermining US authority in the Middle East. Even a few days ago, an agreement between some states including Saudi Arabia, Iran and Yemen could not have been imagined. But now it has become a reality. Israel has suffered the most from this new polarization. Over the past few decades, the United States has been working to create a new Middle East; In order to create a favorable environment for Arab countries to accept Israel. During the Trump administration, four Arab Muslim countries, including the United Arab Emirates, normalized relations with Israel through an agreement, but the United States could not maintain it. After Joe Biden was elected as the President of the United States, relations with the Middle East countries including Saudi Arabia deteriorated.

While looking for the reasons for the decline of US authority in the Middle East, political analysts say that relations with the Middle East countries have begun to deteriorate since Trump's regime. The negative comments that Trump made about the leaders of the region at various times have not been well accepted by the rulers of the countries. Trump's lack of respect for the leaders of the region was discerned from his public statements on several occasions. This is what Trump meant by his statement - he considers the region an open market, from which he can take anything he wants without objection. He did not hesitate to call the Middle East lazy and backward. This attitude has not changed since Joe Biden came to power. Biden highlighted the lack of democracy, human rights and freedom of speech in the countries of the region including Saudi Arabia as a major issue. Countries in the region are gradually withdrawing from the United States to express such disrespectful attitude of Trump and Biden. Moreover, Biden, like Trump, began to react unreservedly to China. Then, when the Ukraine war started, the equation of world politics began to change. Then, after the OPEC Plus alliance led by Saudi Arabia decided to cut oil production, Biden reacted angrily and threatened Saudi Arabia, saying that Saudi Arabia will have to suffer "consequences". He also said that Saudi Arabia taking such a decision despite strong objections of the United States will have an impact on the "US-Saudi Arabia" relationship. Influential senators on the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee called for an immediate end to all US cooperation with Saudi Arabia, including arms sales. Since then, Saudi Arabia has leaned more towards China. China takes advantage of this opportunity. They changed the geopolitical calculus of the Middle East by brokering a diplomatic deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Among the oil exporting countries, Saudi Arabia is the highest oil-producing country. In 1974, the United States signed an oil export agreement with Saudi Arabia. Through that agreement, the dollar was converted into a petrodollar. A petrodollar is basically an agreement to buy petrol in exchange for dollars only. According to this agreement, Saudi Arabia was forced to accept the dollar as the sovereign world currency. This means that petrol should be bought and sold in dollars only. The US then made another condition, promising to help the Saudi royal family in every possible way to stay in power. That is, to convince all OPEC countries, so that others do not sell oil in exchange for any currency other than dollars. The US has always wanted to ensure that no country leaves the system. As a result, the demand for dollars in the international market increased and helped the dollar gain a much stronger position. The dollar became the international currency of world trade. The United States is the only one that has experienced the economic and political consequences of the dollar. The US has used the dollar advantage as a political weapon against dissident states and governments. Countries that have tried to escape this economic terror of the United States have had a very bad outcome. Iraq and Libya tried to do so and their current consequences are well known. The US also used this weapon against Russia after the operation in Ukraine. Due to this, Russia is not able to use almost half of its foreign exchange reserves. The United States froze about $600 billion in Russian reserves, which were the world's sixth-largest reserves. Apart from this, many banks in Russia have been cut off from SWIFT, the international banking transaction communication system. Due to this, Russia is not able to do dollar-based international transactions. After taking this measure against Russia, other countries have become cautious. In this context, those countries are unitedly trying to introduce a monetary transaction system outside the dollar, so that the United States cannot take any opportunity to throttle them in future.

The author, a Japanese national, works as a research associate at the University of Melbourne, Australia. She received her degree in South Asian Studies from the University of Toronto in Canada.