Fed Pause Wouldn’t Necessarily Refresh Stock Market

Faltering earnings growth, high valuations could undercut stocks’ tendency to rise after rates peak

Inflation is still much too high, according to one top Federal Reserve official.Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg News

Stocks have historically rallied after the Federal Reserve has finished raising interest rates. Markets might not get the same boost this time around, some investors and analysts warn.

Going back to 1982, the S&P 500 returned an average of 19% in the 12 months after the federal-funds rate peaked, according to a Goldman Sachs team led by chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin. Goldman studied six Fed tightening cycles over that time period. Stocks rose after all but one of them.

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