Economists Turn More Pessimistic on Inflation

Persistent inflation will keep interest rates elevated and recession risks high, Journal survey finds

The March CPI came in below expectations at 5% year-over-year, but the core CPI, which economists view as a better predictor of future inflation, increased for the first time since September to 5.6%. Photo: Yuki Iwamura/AFP/Getty Images

The economy is proving more resilient and inflation more stubborn than economists expected a few months ago, and as a result the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high for longer, according to The Wall Street Journal’s latest survey of economists.

On average, economists expect inflation, as measured by the annual increase in the consumer-price index, to end this year at 3.53%, up from 3.1% in the January survey. Inflation in March was 5%, the Labor Department reported this past week, the lowest in two years.

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