Here's which NBA playoff teams will boom or bust

The Bucks seem like the contender most primed to live up to championship expectations. Milwaukee boasts candidates for MVP (Giannis Antetokounmpo), Defensive Player of the Year (Brook Lopez), Sixth Man of the Year (Bobby Portis), as well as possessing the best two-way player in the NBA (Jrue Holiday). The Bucks run for a second championship this decade depends on the health and play of Khris Middleton, who has been the second-best player during the team’s recent run.

Middleton (pictured), however, has played below his career average, only scoring 15.1 points per game on a horrid 43.6 field goal percentage while shooting 31.5 percent from three. The 6-foot-7 forward only played in 33 games this season, missing time — including the final two games of the year — due to a lingering right knee injury. If he can return to form, there is not a team in either conference with the championship experience or depth to beat the Bucks.

The Knicks hold advantages over the Cavaliers at each position, except shooting guard. The Cavs bench and small forward (Isaac Okoro) are serious weaknesses. The Knicks have one of the best Box Plus Minus benches in the NBA, especially after adding Josh Hart at the deadline. They will miss Julius Randle (pictured) for at least the series’ first game, but the Knicks have been firing on all cylinders with Obi Toppin starting. The team’s pace has increased dramatically, an important metric as the Cavs rank dead last in that category. Cleveland will not want to run with New York and instead will look to set up in the half-court to allow its defensive frontcourt to protect the paint.

The Knicks are one of the most efficient driving teams in the league, led by Randle and Jalen Brunson (pictured). The Cavs overly rely on their star backcourt, allowing New York to target its defense to slow them down or let the rest of the low-scoring role guys beat them. The Knicks are deep and talented, and if they get past the Cavs, they could be the Cinderella team of this year’s postseason. If New York avoids Milwaukee, perhaps it reaches the Eastern Conference Finals.

The Golden State Warriors got good news with the return of Andrew Wiggins (pictured), their second-best player during last year’s championship run. While it appears that the defending champs were just coasting through the regular season, Steph Curry (29.4 ppg) and Klay Thompson (21.9 ppg) helped Golden State overcome poor bench play and earn the West’s No. 6 seed. No matter how bad they’ve been on the road — and they’ve been horrible (11-30) — the Warriors’ four recent championships have shown the team’s ability to turn it up a notch in the playoffs.

Awaiting Golden State is longtime doormat, the Sacramento Kings. Thanks to a fantastic season, Sacramento returns to the playoffs for the first time in 17 years and as the third seed. But the Kings are no match for the Warriors and their championship pedigree. Sacramento might have the best offense in the NBA, but it also has the 24th-ranked defense. The Warriors are much more balanced, boasting the 10th-best offense and 14th-best defense. Kings head coach Mike Brown is the leading candidate for Coach of the Year, but he will be matched against his mentor and former boss, Steve Kerr. The Kings might be the better team in three years, but the Warriors are still the defending champs. Prepare for an upset.

Before the Kevin Durant deal at the deadline, the Suns would have been on the other side of this list. But adding the league’s most lethal scorer next to Devin Booker (pictured, right) is enough to get back to the Finals. Durant on his own is enough for a deep playoff run, but sliding Booker to the secondary scoring slot is a hell of an advantage. Phoenix’s depth took a hit in acquiring KD, so a deep postseason run will still depend on Chris Paul finding his legs past the first round.

We’ve seen the former “point god” flame out earlier and earlier in the last two years. The Suns will need CP3 to be the third scoring option — at least from the perimeter — and maintain his regular season scoring average of 14 ppg. Durant (pictured) has to be hungry after a disappointing stint in Brooklyn, where failed trades and Kyrie Irving’s antics took the air out of the Nets’ championship goals. Phoenix provides a fresh start for the all-time great to add to his post-Warriors legacy.

First, Joel Embiid (pictured) is this year’s MVP. With that out of the way, the 76ers are one of the teams with the most pressure entering the postseason. Between James Harden’s sordid playoff history and head coach Doc Rivers’s tendency to blow series leads, the 76ers need at least a Conference Finals appearance for this season to be considered a success of sorts. But with Embiid playing the best basketball of his career on both sides of the floor and a more level playing field than we’ve seen in years, that’s not only possible but likely. Having Embiid in the middle gives Philly the edge in every potential Eastern Conference matchup.

This means Harden (pictured) and third-year guard Tyrese Maxey must play up to their second- and third-scoring option roles. A likely second-round matchup between the 76ers and Boston Celtics leans Philly’s way, as the under-sized frontcourt depth of Boston would stand no chance against the offensive brilliance of Embiid, who would impose his will against the C’s front line. It will come down to his supporting cast stepping up when needed. And if they don’t, Embiid owes Philly and the franchise nothing. He has given them everything he’s got. If Embiid envisions a better situation elsewhere, go for it.

Pundits and analysts in the media agree the Cleveland Cavaliers/New York Knicks matchup is the only competitive first-round series in the East. But if you look at both teams — from coach to 12th man — you’ll see a decisive advantage for the Knicks. Don’t be fooled by New York’s lower seeding. The Knicks have the better coach, bench, point guard, small forward, and power forward. The center matchup is a tie between Mitchell Robinson and Jarrett Allen. The Cavs only have the edge at shooting guard with Donovan Mitchell (pictured) over Quentin Grimes. Cleveland head coach J. B. Bickerstaff has never coached a playoff game.

Of the main rotation players, only Mitchell and Cedi Osman have been a part of winning playoff basketball. The Knicks are led by Brunson, who was the second-best player during the Mavs’ Western Conference Finals run last year. The Knicks are young and mostly inexperienced too, but they are playing with house money, after exceeding everyone’s expectations this season. Tom Thibodeau has had his best season as New York’s head coach, but he will need to keep the momentum going in order for the Knicks to make a deep playoff run as well. Vegas pegged Cleveland as the favorite in this matchup, still, anyone who has watched how much the Cavs depend on superstar outputs from Mitchell and Darius Garland (pictured) knows how fragile and lopsided the team’s offense is.

As I predicted last November, the Miami Heat are cooked. Long-time team exec Pat Riley has lost his touch. He doled out two of the worst contracts — three years, $85 million to Kyle Lowry, and five years, $90 million to Duncan Robinson. Miami botched its first Play-In game against the Atlanta Hawks by failing to keep up scoring. The Heat need help putting points on the board outside of Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro. Bam Adebayo (pictured) is dominant on defense, but has failed to develop offensively. The Heat lack the shooting, interior presence, and guard play to compete in the modern NBA.

Miami’s roster is built for the late-2000s and features players — Lowry, Kevin Love, Udonis Haslem — who were part of that era of Heat basketball. Next season, Miami will have a hefty luxury tax bill, and no first-round pick. The options to improve are slim to none. They are one of the few teams left in purgatory, too good to improve through the Draft Lottery (if they even had a pick), and poorly constructed to make noise in the playoffs beyond their 102-91 win over Chicago.

It’s been a hell of a Cinderella season. Nobody will argue the Kings haven’t shocked the world, and maybe themselves, by reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2006. Sacramento’s mid-season trade last year for Domantas Sabonis (pictured) looks better by the day. Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox, the most clutch player in crunch time, have revived the most dysfunctional franchise over the last two decades. Their pick-and-roll game and dribble handoff efficiency have powered the Kings’ offense to No. 1 in the league.

But the fairytale run will end in the first round at the hand of the Golden State Warriors. It’s kind of unfair the Kings have to play the defending champs this early. But, Golden State has been one of the worst road teams in the league this season, and Sacramento is one of the toughest places for opposing teams to play. The crowd will be buzzing. Let the cowbells ring out. But that won’t be enough to overcome Golden State’s championship pedigree, lengthy playoff experience, and a returning Andrew Wiggins. The combined intel of Kings vet Harrison Barnes and former Warriors assistant Mike Brown may be enough for them to advance, though.

Optimism might be high for the Clips, but L.A. — sans Paul George (knee) — has to take on the Suns in the first round. That leaves the Clippers without their second-best player and top perimeter defender. Essentially, George was L.A.’s only chance of defending Durant. Without PG13, the Clips will try to task older, washed guys like Marcus Morris and Nicolas Batum or undersized wings like Tre Mann and Norman Powell, with the job.

The Clips have the best in-game adjustment maker in Ty Lue, but elite coaching won’t be enough to contain Durant and Booker, who now slides into the best second option in the NBA. If Los Angeles was matched up with literally any other Western Conference team in the first round, it would be on the other side of this list. It will take a monumental series from Kawhi Leonard (pictured) and the Clips’ deep and talented roster meeting their full potential in the loss of George for L.A. to win.

Surprised to see them? Blame it on the internal chaos after Ime Udoka was suspended and then replaced by Joe Mazzula (pictured). Mazzula is a first-time head coach tasked with getting the C’s to the Finals, where anything less would be considered a failure. Furthermore, Jaylen Brown’s impending free agency in two summers feels shaky.

Brown’s recent comments on racism in the Boston fandom, and his non-committal stance on re-signing, leave a massive question mark. Concerning the present, the vibes don’t seem the same as last year’s Cinderella run. The biggest issue has nothing to do with personnel or off-the-court decisions. It’s how undependable Jason Tatum (pictured) has been in the clutch late this season. He must redeem his horrid Finals performance from last year. A good start is improving his 2-of-31 three-point shooting in overtime.