The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its U.S. retail gasoline price forecasts for this year and next year, according to the organization’s latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on April 11.
Retail gasoline is now expected to average $3.42 per gallon in 2023 and $3.18 per gallon in 2024, the EIA’s April STEO shows. In its previous STEO, which was released on March 7, the EIA expected retail gasoline to come in at $3.36 per gallon in 2023 and $3.11 per gallon in 2024. The retail gasoline price averaged $3.97 per gallon in 2022, the EIA’s latest STEO highlights.
“We forecast retail gasoline prices will peak between $3.50 per gallon and $3.60 per gallon in June and average about $3.50 per gallon throughout the summer season (April through September),” the EIA said in its April STEO.
“In 2023, we estimate refinery production of gasoline will increase by more than U.S. consumption, raising stocks, lowering prices, and increasing net exports compared with 2022,” the EIA added.
“In the forecast, net exports of gasoline average 810,000 barrels per day in 2023, up from 780,000 barrels per day in 2022, in response to increased U.S. gasoline production and more consumption globally,” the EIA continued.
The EIA noted in the April STEO that it expects similar trends for distillate, “with net exports averaging 1.1 million barrels per day in both 2023 and 2024”.
“Calls on U.S. distillate exports to replace sanctioned volumes in Europe are likely to increase U.S. distillate exports in 2023,” the EIA stated.
Fuel Update
According to the EIA’s latest fuel update, which was released on April 10, the U.S. regular gasoline price increased from $3.421 per gallon on March 27, to $3.497 per gallon on April 3, and $3.596 per gallon on April 10.
As of April 10, California had the highest regular gasoline price in the U.S., at $4.682 per gallon, while the Gulf Coast had the lowest regular gasoline price in the country, at $3.253 per gallon, the EIA’s fuel update showed.
The update also revealed what consumers were paying for in a gallon of gasoline back in February. According to the update, which pegged the retail price of regular gasoline at $3.39 per gallon during February, 53 percent of that total went towards crude oil costs, 20 percent went towards refining costs, 15 percent went towards taxes, and 13 percent went towards distribution and marketing costs.
In a fuel update released on December 27, 2022, which put the retail price of regular gasoline at $3.69 per gallon during November, 2022, the EIA revealed that 55 percent of that total November price went towards crude oil costs, 18 percent went towards distribution and marketing costs, 14 percent went towards taxes, and 13 percent went towards refining costs.
Current Price
As of April 14, the average price of regular gasoline in the U.S. was $3.662 per gallon, according to the AAA Gas Prices website. Yesterday’s average price was $3.645 per gallon, the week ago average price was $3.581 per gallon, the month ago average price was $3.466 per gallon, and the year ago average price was $4.074 per gallon, the AAA site showed.
The highest recorded average price for regular gasoline in the U.S. was seen on June 14, 2022, at $5.016 per gallon, according to the site.
A live ticking average price marker for regular unleaded gas on GasBuddy’s site values the commodity at $3.655 per gallon, as of 4.50am EST on April 14. Prices are up from yesterday’s, last week’s and last month’s averages, the price ticker outlined.
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