Kyle Bass has some advice for real estate investors. Tear it down.
he founder of Dallas-based Hayman Capital Management says office buildings in cities need to be demolished because demand isn't returning and it's impractical to turn most towers into apartments.
"It's one asset class that just has to get redone, and redone meaning demolished," said Mr Bass.
The Dallas-based investor shot to fame more than a decade ago betting against subprime mortgages before the US housing collapse. He has since pushed a series of contrarian investments that have occasionally burned investors such as predicting the collapse of Japanese government debt and Hong Kong's dollar.
His expectation of more pain in the office market reflects a more widespread view that the pandemic has driven a semi-permanent shift toward remote and hybrid work that imperils lower quality buildings that are older and lack amenities.
The office vacancy rate in the US climbed to 20.2pc in the first quarter, up from 19.6pc in the last three months of 2022, according to Jones Lang LaSalle, and recent weakness in tech has forced companies including Meta Platforms and Amazon.com, to scale back their footprint.
"We are now approaching the eye of the economic storm, and I expect it will get even worse," Steven Roth, the chairman of Vornado Realty Trust, said in a recent shareholder letter.
Mr Bass, who has most recently been investing in Texas land, said there is an imbalance in real estate with a severe lack of multi-family units, especially in fast-growing cities such as Dallas, but it is impractical to convert the vast majority of offices into housing.
"You have to jackhammer, rebar and concrete. You have to re-plumb everything," Mr Bass said. "And when you finish it, it just doesn't feel right. You wouldn't want to live there," he said, citing for instance the lack of light.
Despite high demand for housing, developers of multi-family properties simply can't get the financing right now to proceed with projects, Mr Bass said. Banks are constrained by the rise in borrowing costs brought on by the Federal Reserve's rate hikes, and the rapid movement of money out of deposits amid turmoil in the sector.