JACKSONVILLE, Fla. - Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who will need to win evangelical voters if he decides to enter the 2024 Republican presidential primary, is poised to sign a new bill imposing one of the strictest abortion limits in the nation.
The legislation, dubbed the Heartbeat Protection Act, was adopted by the GOP-led Florida House on Thursday in a 70-40 vote and will head to the desk of Mr. DeSantis, who signaled last month that he’ll sign it into law.
The measure would ban abortion after six weeks of pregnancy, with some exceptions, aligning Florida with a dozen other Republican-led states that have moved to significantly restrict the procedure in the wake of the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, the 1973 ruling that legalized abortion.
If he signs the bill as expected, Mr. DeSantis will be acting in support of the GOP’s critical pro-life evangelical base, a group that could help propel him in the early battles of a Republican primary.
But Mr. DeSantis would be approving the new restrictions in the face of polling that shows most voters, including those identifying as independents, do not support preventing abortion as early as six weeks, which opponents say is effectively a total ban because most women do not know they are pregnant at that time.
Some Republican strategists are warning that Mr. DeSantis is putting himself in political peril as a GOP presidential candidate, especially following the results of the 2022 midterm elections and other state contests that show new abortion restrictions are mobilizing Democratic voters and leading to the defeat of GOP candidates in general elections.
“I think it’s DeSantis’s biggest political mistake he’s made thus far as governor,” Republican strategist Ryan Girdusky told The Washington Times.
The bill would not take effect immediately. A year ago, Mr. DeSantis signed a ban on abortion after 15 weeks, and that law will remain in place until the Florida Supreme Court decides several legal challenges.
But signing the six-week ban would not only uphold Mr. DeSantis’s pledge to Florida’s pro-life base, it could help him win over the highly coveted evangelical vote in key early voting states, including Iowa, which holds the first-in-the-nation GOP caucus.
Mr. Trump lost the Iowa caucuses in 2016 to Sen. Ted Cruz,Texas Republican. Some see a 2024 opening in the Hawkeye State for Mr. DeSantis, who places second to Mr. Trump in many national polls but has generally been more competitive in statewide polls, including those taken in Iowa.
Dennis Goldford, a political science professor at Drake University in Des Moines, said the evangelical vote is a critical factor in the Iowa caucus and abortion remains one of their primary concerns. In 2016, close to two-thirds of participants in the GOP caucus identified as conservative evangelicals.
“In other words, they are a huge factor in the Iowa Republican Party,” Mr. Goldford said.
Many of those voters back Mr. Trump, but there are some who are looking for an alternative, Mr. Goldford said.
Mr. DeSantis has nearly tied Mr. Trump in some Iowa polls and has beaten him in others, while trouncing a list of other Republican candidates.
Evangelical voters will be looking for a candidate who is willing to impose stricter abortion limits, now that Roe has been tossed out.
“The next step is to eliminate it, state by state, or a national ban,” Mr. Goldford said, “That’s their ultimate goal. Getting rid of Roe means that they have an opening, but that doesn’t mean they’re done with abortion.”
Mr. DeSantis would be able to tout his fresh signature on the six-week ban.
Mr. Trump can promote his own impressive pro-life record, including the appointment of three Supreme Court Justice whose votes provided the majority to overturn Roe, one of the longest-held goals of the pro-life movement.
Mr. Trump has been less specific about additional abortion restrictions, or whether he backs a ban on the procedure beyond six weeks of pregnancy.
“President Trump’s unmatched record speaks for itself—nominating pro-life federal judges and Supreme Court justices that overturned Roe v. Wade, ending taxpayer funded abortions, reinstating the Mexico City Policy that protects the life of the unborn abroad, and many other actions that championed the life of the unborn,” a Trump spokesperson told The Washington Times when asked if he would back a six-week ban. “There has been no bigger advocate for the movement than President Trump.”
The measure passed by the Florida legislature provides exceptions for the life of the mother, rape and incest, but in those cases, documentation has to be provided, either in a court order, police report or doctor’s confirmation.
The bill would also ban doctors from providing abortion pills over the phone and would require the pills to be provided in person.
When asked last month if he would sign legislation banning abortion after six weeks, Mr. DeSantis told reporters “We welcome pro-life legislation,” and said he has urged the legislature to “work, produce good stuff, and we will sign.”
The six-week ban is at odds with public opinion on abortion access. A Pew Poll taken less than a year ago found only 21% of Americans believe abortion should be banned at six weeks, when a fetal heartbeat is typically detected.
An April 2022 Wall Street Journal poll found 48% of voters strongly or somewhat favored a 15-week ban, which is the Florida law signed by Mr. DeSantis last year that is currently tied up in Florida’s Supreme Court.
Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy, called the new six-week ban in Florida “a pretty stupid political move” for Mr. DeSantis following the 2022 midterm election results that showed the impact of the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe.
The election saw the GOP lose the critical support of suburban women, significantly reducing a predicted red wave. The midterms were followed by other warning signs on abortion, such as last week’s outcome in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, where the issue of abortion access helped propel a liberal Democrat to victory.
“If DeSantis ends up winning the Republican nomination, the six-week ban will hurt him with swing voters in the general election,” Mr. Coker said. “The current 15-week ban would have made it much easier for voters nationwide to get past the issue and put more focus on other issues that are more Republican-friendly right now.”
As the Florida legislature debated the bill on Thursday, Mr. DeSantis appeared at the Summit County Lincoln Day Breakfast in Akron, Ohio, where he was the featured speaker. He did not talk about abortion but told the audience he doesn’t watch the polls.
“A leader is going to set out a vision, execute the vision, deliver results,” Mr. DeSantis said. ‘“And guess what happens when you do that? The polls change in your favor. So get ahead of public opinion. Don’t be captive to what these polls say.”
