NBA Play-In Games Odds and Predictions for All Four Games

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The NBA play-in tournament begins tonight with the No. 8-vs-No. 7 matchups in both the Eastern and Western Conference. Today's slate kicks off with the Atlanta Hawks visiting the Miami Heat at 7:30 p.m. EST at the Kaseya Center, followed by the Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers at 10 p.m. EST from Crypto.com Arena in L.A.

The winners of today's games will slot into the No. 7 spot in the 2023 NBA playoff bracket, while the losers will have a second chance to earn a postseason berth on Friday, April 14, hosting the winner of the No. 9-vs-No. 10 games, which take place tomorrow.

The table below shows the odds for today's and tomorrow's games, which all heavily favor the home teams. Under the table, find my best bets for today's matchups.

NBA Play-In Tournament Odds: April 11 Games

Today, the Heat are five-point favorites over the visiting Hawks with the moneyline at -200/+170 in Miami's favor. The Minnesota/Los Angeles odds are even more heavily tilted towards the home side, with the Lakers sitting as 8.5-point favorites as of Tuesday morning and -360 on the moneyline.

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Hawks vs. Heat Pick

The Miami Heat (44-38, 27-14 home) didn't live up to expectations this year after reaching Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals in the 2022 playoffs. Some of that can be chalked up to injuries and we did see glimpses of the team that took the Celtics to the brink last year.

Home-court advantage tonight is massive for Miami. They won at a 65.9-percent clip at the Kaseya Center and just a 41.4-percent rate everywhere else. In last year's playoffs, they won seven straight home games to open the postseason before dropping two in Miami to Boston. The first three of those playoff wins came against the Hawks with a 9.3-point average margin of victory. Atlanta only kept one game - the deciding Game 5 - to a single-digit deficit.

The Hawks were a similarly home-centric team in the regular season, going 24-17 at home and 17-24 on the road. They enter the playoffs having lost four of their past five road games, including an ugly 128-116 setback at the lowly Spurs.

Health-wise, Miami point guard Kyle Lowry is still laboring under a knee injury and is listed as day-to-day. But bettors can expect the 37-year-old to suit up tonight. His minutes have been heavily managed down the stretch to insure he'd be able to at least start the postseason on the court.

Miami's ATS cover rate this year (30-49-3 overall and 14-25-2 at home) is hugely concerning. Overall, the Heat were tied for the worst ATS record in the league alongside Dallas, while their home ATS record was 29th (only ahead of the Mavs).

While I do expect the Heat to flip-the-switch, so to speak, in the postseason, I'm more comfortable wagering on the first-half spread than the full-game spread. In Game 1 of their first-round series with the Hawks last year, the Heat blitzed Atlanta 59-40. They wound up winning the first half in all three games in Miami during that series, two by double-digits.

Pick: Miami 1H -2.5 (-110)

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Timberwolves vs. Lakers Pick

The second matchup of the night is between two teams who finished the regular season strong. The Lakers (43-39, 23-18 home) went 9-2 down the stretch, including a 5-1 mark at home. The T-Wolves (42-40, 20-21 away) went 7-3, with a 5-1 record on the road that included impressive wins over the Knicks, Warriors, and Kings.

But Minnesota suffered a massive blow in their final regular-season game against the Pelicans (no pun intended). Center Rudy Gobert punched teammate Kyle Anderson during a timeout and has been suspended for tonight's game.

Not only is Gobert the team's leading rebounder (11.1 RPG), he was the only fully-healthy member of Minnesota's usual front-court rotation. Naz Reid (scaphoid fracture) and Jaden McDaniels (hand) are out, while Karl-Anthony Towns, who was limited to just 29 games this season due to a calf injury, is still battling that same ailment and listed as questionable.

The Gobert absence is going to put a massive amount of pressure on Towns to, not only suit up, but be effective on the boards against L.A.'s Anthony Davis, who's pulling down 12.5 rebounds per game.

It's hard to see the T-Wolves winning this game without Gobert, but 8.5 points is a big number to lay against a team that's played well away from home all season. With consummate veteran Mike Conley running the point and two-guard Anthony Edwards spearheading the offense, Minnesota is going to find ways to stay within striking distance.

Pick: T-Wolves +8.5 (-110)

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