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ESPN Fantasy

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

What you need to know for Tuesday's MLB Games

By Derek Carty

Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
15.9	Shohei Ohtani	R	WSH	99.9%	-320	8.5	67%	6.1	1.9	7.1
15.3	Alek Manoah	R	DET	98.7%	-285	9	69%	6.3	2.0	6.1
14.1	Jacob deGrom	R	KC	99.6%	-285	8	65%	5.4	2.3	7.7
14.1	Corbin Burnes	R	@ARI	99.8%	-130	8.5	61%	5.9	2.1	6.9
13.2	Aaron Nola	R	MIA	99.8%	-155	7.5	56%	5.8	2.4	6.8
13.2	Cristian Javier	R	@PIT	97.9%	-178	8	63%	5.5	1.9	6.2
12.0	Gerrit Cole	R	@CLE	99.9%	-170	8	59%	5.8	2.9	7.2
11.5	Shane McClanahan	L	BOS	99.7%	-190	7.5	58%	5.2	2.0	6.0
11.1	Pablo Lopez	R	CWS	95.7%	-155	8	52%	5.5	2.5	5.9
11.1	Lance Lynn	R	@MIN	86.0%	130	8	48%	5.8	2.7	6.0
10.9	Kyle Wright	R	CIN	81.7%	-235	9	57%	5.6	2.4	5.6
10.3	Jesus Luzardo	L	@PHI	85.4%	130	7.5	44%	5.3	2.4	6.2
9.9	Alex Wood	L	LAD	3.6%	143	8	46%	5.2	2.1	5.2
9.6	Dustin May	R	@SF	85.5%	-170	8	54%	4.7	1.8	4.9
9.5	Hayden Wesneski	R	SEA	9.3%	-120	10.5	48%	5.4	2.5	5.3
9.3	Josiah Gray	R	@LAA	4.9%	250	8.5	33%	5.6	2.8	5.5
9.0	David Peterson	L	SD	12.1%	-140	9	53%	4.9	2.1	5.0
8.5	Merrill Kelly	R	MIL	70.7%	110	8.5	39%	5.6	2.9	5.3
8.0	Kyle Muller	L	@BAL	4.8%	162	8.5	55%	4.8	2.3	4.5
7.7	Chris Flexen	R	@CHC	2.7%	100	10.5	52%	5.4	2.8	4.4
7.7		R	OAK	34.1%	-195	8.5	45%	4.9	2.5	4.5
7.5	Garrett Whitlock	R	@TB	20.2%	158	7.5	42%	4.3	1.9	4.3
7.1	Mitch Keller	R	HOU	13.6%	150	8	37%	5.1	2.7	5.0
6.5	Ryan Weathers	L	@NYM	0.5%	118	9	47%	4.2	1.9	3.6
6.5	Luis Cessa	R	@ATL	0.9%	192	9	43%	4.6	2.5	3.9
6.3	Matt Manning	R	@TOR	1.7%	228	9	31%	5.1	2.7	4.0
5.7	Hunter Gaddis	R	NYY	1.3%	143	8	41%	4.6	2.9	4.4
4.8	Miles Mikolas	R	@COL	37.7%	-170	11.5	60%	5.3	4.1	4.7
3.7	Jordan Lyles	R	@TEX	1.7%	228	8	35%	5.3	4.2	4.8
0.4	Kyle Freeland	L	STL	32.2%	143	11.5	40%	4.8	4.7	4.2

Bullpen usage watch for Tuesday

By Todd Zola

Relief Pitcher Usage Chart

This chart lists the pitchers rostered in at least 50% of ESPN leagues who have been most heavily used recently, signaling they might be unavailable today. Rst% is the player's ESPN roster percentage; the listed date is the pitcher's pitch count from the previous day; P3 is the pitcher's total pitch count from the previous three days; Rest is the pitcher's days of rest; Strk is the number of consecutive days the pitcher has worked.

Pitcher	Team	Rst%	4/10	P3	Strk
Alexis Diaz	CIN	50.2%	17	49	1
Emmanuel Clase	CLE	98.9%	10	34	2
Felix Bautista	BAL	90.4%	16	16	1
David Robertson	NYM	64.3%	12	23	1

Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday

The Bat X's Best Stacks for Tuesday

Prop of the Day

Kyle Freeland, Rockies, strikeouts: Over/Under 3.5 (-122/-104)

PROJECTION

THE BAT X sees Freeland putting up 2.8 strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 38.7% of the time. THE BAT X believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $21.15.

Factors the favor the over

Dan Bellino, expected to be behind the plate today, grades out as a pitcher's umpire.
Freeland has been unlucky with his strikeouts since the start of last season, posting a 6.58 K/9 despite THE BAT X estimating his true talent level to be 6.88 -- a 0.3 K/9 discrepancy.

Factors the favor the under

THE BAT X projects Freeland to throw 75 pitches in this game (least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
Coors Field grades out as the No. 30 Park in baseball for strikeouts, according to THE BAT X projection system.
The weather report calls for the best hitting weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
The Cardinals have nine batters in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against Freeland in this game.