IMD predicts 96% rainfall this year, El Nino can impact second half of monsoon season

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday said that there is a possibility of receiving 96 per cent (+-5 per cent) rainfall of long period average this monsoon season. At a press conference held in Delhi, IMD DGM M Mohapatra said normal monsoon season can be expected between June and September this year. 

IMD said that there could be around 87cm rainfall during the four-month monsoon period and it expects 96 per cent of the same during this year's monsoon season.

As per IMD norms, an average, or normal, rainfall ranges between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season in India.

He added that normal-to-below normal rainfall is expected in some areas of northwest India, parts of west-central India, and some pockets of northeast India this year.

He further added that El Nino conditions are likely to develop during monsoon season. El Nino impact may be felt during second half of monsoon, Mohapatra said on Tuesday.

He said that there is no "one-to-one" relation between El Nino and Monsoon rain in India. Clarying his stand, Mohapatra said that all El Niño years are not bad monsoon years. About 40 per cent of El Nino years in the past were years with normal or above normal monsoon rainfall.

On Monday, private met forecaster Skymet Weather said that India could get “below normal” rainfall during the monsoon season between June and September, mainly due to a strengthening El Nino phenomenon.

In its report, Skymet said monsoon rainfall is expected to be “below normal” to the tune of 94 per cent, with an error margin of +/-5 per cent, of the long-period average (LPA) of 86.86 cm for the 4-month period.

It said there is a 40 per cent chance of “below normal” rainfall during the season, a 25 per cent chance of normal rainfall (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104 per cent of LPA), and 15 per cent chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110 per cent of LPA); and 0 per cent chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110 per cent of LPA).

This year's Economic Survey said that 47 per cent of our population is dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. A bountiful monsoon has a direct correlation with a healthy rural economy. The Union Agriculture Ministry too has noted that 51 per cent of farmed area in our country, which produces 40 per cent of the total crop, is rain-fed, and hence, the monsoon is critical to our economy.

The Finance Ministry, in its monthly economic review of January 2023, had said a return of El Niño could mean a weak monsoon, lower agriculture production, and the possibility of higher prices.

“Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Nino conditions in India this year. If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices. Though inflation risks are likely to be lower for India in FY24. Still, they will not have vanished as global conditions such as geopolitical conflicts, and consequent supply disruptions that contributed to higher inflation in 2022 are still present,” the review stated.

ICICI Securities in its report on Tuesday said that El-Nino effect on agriculture output is a key risk to rural income. It said it remains a speculative call at this point in time. This is because it is still an evolving situation with ~50 per cent probability of El Nino conditions during the Jun-Sep’23 period.
 

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