Apr 9, 2023

ESPN Fantasy

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

What you need to know for Sunday's MLB Games

By Todd Zola

The full Sunday slate commences at 1:05 PM ET with the Phillies hosting the Reds and concludes with ESPN Sunday Night Baseball at 7:00 PM, featuring the Braves entertaining the Padres. In between are 13 matinees, with a lot of back-end pitching on the mound. To wit, there are only seven starters projected to tally at least 10 fantasy points, as measured by the standard ESPN scoring system. In contrast, Saturday's slate contained 10 hurlers expected to score in the double digits, while (spoiler alert) Monday's slate is loaded with 14 starters projected for at least 10 points.

Sunday marks the final day of the initial scoring period in head-to-head leagues. To better serve you, several of us responsible for the daily rankings and advice are playing in a standard 10-team league with daily moves (we are playing out this mock draft). Humblebrag alert but will likely embark on the Sunday schedule with a healthy lead. If it were closer, I'd have a tough decision, like what several of you are facing. I have Max Fried stashed on reserve, and we are not playing with an IL. Because of more than usual off days over the first 11 days of the season, I am carrying two bench bats. If I needed to catch up on Sunday, I'd need to either drop Fried, or a solid bat who has been used multiple times over the first scoring period. With Fried due back as early as next weekend, I likely would have dropped a hitter to pick up a spot starter, especially since there are 14 games on Monday's slate, so I won't need to worry about a reserve bat until Thursday. Learning how to navigate scenarios like this with the plusher available player pool is exactly why the writers and editors are competing in a house league.

Sunday AM added note: When today's notes were orignally filed, I had a seemingly comfortable lead in the ESPN Writers and Editors head-to-head league, so I opted not to drop a potentially useful player to fortify my Sunday lineup. However, I woke up with a precarious 19-point lead and my opponent has George Kirby on the hill today, whereas I have no scheduled starters, so I decided to make a couple of changes. As discussed above, Anthony DeSclafani is in a great spot, so I released Corey Kluber to pick up DeSclafani. In addition, there is only one reliever in the active lineup, which seems suboptimal in this format. A.J. Minter (39%) was available, so I picked him up. He's the Braves closer and hasn't pitched since April 6. Atlanta is sending Dylan Dodd to the bump against Seth Lugo and the Padres. This is a reasonable setup for a save chance. Plus, Atlanta plays the Reds and Royals next week, so barring six blowouts, Minter should be in line for a save or two. The drop was the most difficult decision, as Triston Casas was sent packing. Beginning today, Boston has a stretch of facing seven southpaws in eight days. As a left-handed hitter, this will push Casas to the lower portion of the order (like today), or to the bench. Since he won't have a solid matchup for at least a week, there is a good chance of picking him back up before the matchups are more favorable.

Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
12.5	Nestor Cortes	L	@BAL	96.6%	-160	8	65%	5.5	2.1	5.8
12.2	Freddy Peralta	R	STL	86.6%	-155	9	57%	4.9	1.7	5.9
10.9	Drew Rasmussen	R	OAK	86.8%	-305	8	52%	4.9	1.5	4.4
10.6	James Kaprielian	R	@TB	1.1%	240	8	48%	5.5	2.2	5.3
10.5		R	KC	22.0%	-165	8.5	61%	5.2	2.0	4.9
10.3	Taijuan Walker	R	CIN	14.9%	-178	8.5	56%	5.3	2.3	5.3
10.1	Jon Gray	R	@CHC	66.8%	-110	8.5	49%	5.3	2.4	5.5
9.9	Braxton Garrett	L	@NYM	0.8%	130	8	50%	5.2	2.1	5.0
9.4	Seth Lugo	R	@ATL	26.4%	100	9	54%	5.8	3.0	5.6
9.4	Carlos Carrasco	R	MIA	14.8%	-155	8	50%	5.1	2.2	5.1
9.2	Jameson Taillon	R	TEX	32.9%	-110	8.5	51%	5.4	2.6	4.9
9.0	Reid Detmers	L	TOR	48.1%	-130	9.5	51%	5.2	2.4	4.9
8.8	Yusei Kikuchi	L	@LAA	12.3%	110	9.5	49%	5.3	2.7	5.1
8.6	Tyler Mahle	R	HOU	73.6%	-120	8	50%	5.3	2.8	5.7
8.3	Matthew Boyd	L	BOS	7.8%	100	8.5	52%	5.2	2.6	4.7
8.1	Johan Oviedo	R	CWS	0.7%	-110	9	51%	5.1	2.3	4.3
8.0	Ryne Nelson	R	LAD	1.3%	115	9.5	44%	5.3	2.7	4.9
7.8	Michael Kopech	R	@PIT	27.2%	-110	9	49%	4.6	2.2	4.7
7.8	Hunter Brown	R	@MIN	29.4%	100	8	50%	5.1	2.7	5.1
7.6	Michael Grove	R	@ARI	2.9%	-135	9.5	56%	4.7	2.4	4.4
7.2	Connor Overton	R	@PHI	0.3%	150	8.5	44%	4.4	2.1	4.2
6.9	Kutter Crawford	R	@DET	1.2%	-120	8.5	48%	5.0	2.9	4.8
6.8	George Kirby	R	@CLE	86.3%	-135	8	54%	4.8	2.8	4.9
6.6	Jake Woodford	R	@MIL	0.5%	130	9	43%	4.7	2.6	4.4
6.6	Zach Plesac	R	SEA	2.0%	115	8	46%	5.3	3.3	4.5
6.2	Dylan Dodd	L	SD	8.7%	-120	9	46%	4.4	2.3	4.0
5.3	Kris Bubic	L	@SF	1.0%	140	8.5	39%	4.7	2.8	4.7
5.0	Tyler Wells	R	NYY	2.7%	135	8	35%	4.2	2.5	3.6
2.7	Ryan Feltner	R	WSH	0.7%	-145	11.5	55%	4.7	4.1	4.4
0.6	Chad Kuhl	R	@COL	0.4%	122	11.5	45%	4.7	4.7	4.2

Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Sunday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Sunday

THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today

Prop of the Day

Christian Arroyo Hits: Over/Under 0.5 (-250/+180)

PROJECTION

THE BAT sees Arroyo putting up 0.82 Hits for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 60.6% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $10.37.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

Comerica Park profiles as the #10 field in the league for RHB batting average, according to THE BAT projection system.
Arroyo will have the handedness advantage against Matthew Boyd today... and even better, Boyd has a huge platoon split.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

Arroyo has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 22% of the time when facing a left-handed pitcher since the start of last season.
Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather report calls for the 4th-coldest temperature of all games today at 55°.
The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 8.1-mph in this matchup, the second-most-favorable of the day for pitchers.
Arroyo hits a lot of his fly balls to center field (38.3% - 77th percentile) and faces baseball's second-deepest CF fences today.