Russia's Effort to 'Undermine' Yevgeny Prigozhin Reaches Next Level: ISW

The Russian Foreign Ministry (MFA) directly responded to recent criticism from Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin over the weekend, marking the first time a Russian institution has addressed the businessman's attacks.

Prigozhin and his private mercenary group have fought closely alongside the Russian military in its invasion of Ukraine, most notably playing a key role in Moscow's attempt to take the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. But despite Prigozhin's friendly history with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a rift has escalated between the two forces, with the Wagner Group leader often publicly criticizing the Kremlin.

On Friday, Prigozhin continued his attacks, by targeting the MFA's work in Africa, writing that the institution does "absolutely nothing" and that his Wagner forces are facing "enormous difficulties" in the region. Unlike in the past, however, the ministry responded to Prigozhin's criticism on its own Telegram channel just two days later, writing that it was "ready for the widest cooperation with Russian entrepreneurs and companies in the context of promoting the legitimate interests of Russian business abroad."

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted in its latest assessment on the Russian-Ukraine war that MFA's direct response "is a continuation of the Kremlin's efforts to discredit and undermine Prigozhin" as the Wagner leader seeks ways to grow his influence in Moscow.

"The MFA, other Russian government institutions, and Kremlin affiliates likely seek to shut down any attempts by Prigozhin to garner public or political support," read the assessment.

The think tank added that Prigozhin's criticism was likely "an effort to portray himself as a capable statesman able to influence foreign affairs and to garner support from the Russian ultranationalist community."

"Prigozhin continues to attempt to aggrandize himself by exaggerating Wagner forces' role in Russian successes in Ukraine and using his prominence in the Russian nationalist information space to criticize the Russian government," the ISW said.

The ISW has previously assessed that Prigozhin may be looking to challenge Putin in the 2024 presidential elections. The Wagner leader published an interview on his own news agency last month that "seemed to mimic the way that Russian President Vladimir Putin films his choreographed public meetings," the think tank said.

Monday's assessment from the ISW also pointed to reports that Prigozhin has been "growing cooperation" between himself and members of the A Just Russia—For Truth party, which may be a sign that he's seeking to gain control over the center-left party.

On the other side of the fallout, Putin is reportedly looking for alternatives to Prigozhin's mercenary group, according to an update from the U.K. defense ministry last week. According to British intelligence, Russia is likely hoping to find a new private military group over which it can exert more "control."

The ISW also previously reported that the Wagner Group has suffered "significant" losses in its fight for Bakhmut, which has been the site of some of the most brutal fighting in the war in Ukraine for months. On March 29, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley estimated that the Wagner Group had lost around 6,000 professional fighters and up to 30,000 recruits battling in the Bakhmut area.

Newsweek has reached out via email to the Russian Foreign Ministry for comment.